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Thread: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

  1. #1

    Lightbulb New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    This is an idea to counter balance the fact that currently the vast majority of MLB draftees / NCAA seniors are scouted very accurately. The objective is to increase the amount of uncertainty when drafting while also maintaining realism and the highly competitive environment on the NCAA side.

    MVP & CY

    MVP, CY awards add an additional 20% chance of going pro
    Total 2 players per season

    All Stars/Gold Glove/Fireman


    All Star season will have add a 10% chance of going pro.
    Fireman season will add an additional 10% chance of going pro.
    Gold Glove season from the following positions (SS, 2B, CF, 3B) will add 10% chance of going pro.

    Total 45 players per season.

    Criteria

    A player must have 2 yrs XP to be considered for the draft.
    All awards won in career will count
    Last edited by KingRat; September 26, 2022 at 08:28 PM.
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  2. #2

    Re: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    If we used this system, each year there would be less than 4.9 players going pro each year (if I did my math correctly).

    The logic would be that (20%+20%)+(45*10%)=490% of the time spread across a maximum of 49 players with awards. Of those 49 possible players, an average of 10% chance for each player means that 4.9 of them would decide to go pro, on average.

    This however doesn't factor seniors who win awards who will go pro anyway. So 4.9 would be the very high side, considering it would only be valid if all of the seniors never won any awards (which will never happen.) After factoring that in, it's likely to bring that number down to roughly 3 players per year on average that would go pro.

    We could probably test this to see results.
    Last edited by KingRat; September 26, 2022 at 08:37 PM.
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  3. #3
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    Re: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    In the ncaa’s in real life, guys have to stay 3 years (juniors). All juniors are draft eligible. Would something like round drafted factor in too?

  4. #4

    Re: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    Its a good question and something to consider. We have a lot to think about.

    I want to protect the NCAA side as much as possible. So I only really want to see roughly 6 players per season go pro and the vast majority of players recruited spending their entire NCAA career with their college team.

    I am okay sacrificing some realism. I think we should allow some sophomores and juniors to declare for the draft and then possibly they can make a decision after they are drafted and that can be its own dice roll. I wouldn't want to open it up to all juniors draftable as it would be hard on the NCAA users.

    Objective

    I think 10 players declaring and 6 players signing on average would be a good total. It means NCAA teams only lose (1) player every two years on average and adds the storyline of 4 players on average per season who declare for the draft but stay in college.

    It also means far more compensation picks which I am okay with also.
    Last edited by KingRat; September 28, 2022 at 06:37 AM.

  5. #5
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    Re: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    Seems reasonable to me. The losses won't be crippling.

  6. #6
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    Re: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    Quote Originally Posted by KingRat View Post
    This is an idea to counter balance the fact that currently the vast majority of MLB draftees / NCAA seniors are scouted very accurately.
    I don't agree with this opinion. I don't think they are 'scouted very accurately'. Are they potentially scouted more accurately than previous 'no scout'-yes, but I also think there may be players that are scouted more inaccurately than 'no scout'.

    I actually think with the new scouting system makes it more difficult to evaluate player growth. With zero scouting one could look at player history and have a pretty good idea on development trend based on attribute movement. With current scouting the attribute change may be due to player development, however it may just 'appear' as development but is just the scouting becoming more accurate-the player may not be developing at all. I now think the player evaluation requires weighting college stats more.

    I would suggest at least evaluating the league with the current process a few seasons before making a significant change.
    Last edited by dl3mk3; October 11, 2022 at 12:30 PM.
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  7. #7
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    Re: New Idea: College Players Going Pro

    Quote Originally Posted by dl3mk3 View Post
    I would suggest at least evaluating the league with the current process a few seasons before making a significant change.
    I think this is a very reasonable suggestion.

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