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Thread: 82-0 drone run

  1. #1
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    82-0 drone run

    The anatomy of a 82-0 drone run.

    First, it takes a lot of skill. An average score of 9 to 1.6. Rrrs pitching was suffocating to the drones. The most they scored was 6. Drones scored 4 or more 12 times, 5 or more only 3 times. That gave the Rrrs a chance in the 6 games that they scored 3 or less.

    But, it takes a lot of luck too. In the 8th drone game, Ja won in 12 innings, with the winning run thrown out at home in the bottom of the 9th. D1 almost beat us in June, taking a loss in the 12th inning. In drone summer we won a game 2-1 with no dramatics. And B5 played us to a 14 inning game after tying it in the 9th and having bases loaded and 0 outs.

    The team seemed to get tight after drone summer, beating C1 3-2 with a 9th inning solo HR and holding on for a different 3-2 win vs C2. The biggest comeback of the drone season was a 4-1 deficit in the bottom of the 9th that ended 5-4 vs D2. C1 again lost 3-2 in September and in Game 82, C2 lost 4-3 and had runners on 1st & 2nd when the game ended. So even with a run scoring ratio of 5.74:1, there were more than enough chances for drones to win a game. Ja was definitely lucky to go 9-0 in 1-run games.

    Non-stats stuff: Early in the season, I completely didn’t care who started against the drones, I just wanted Vader and Schmidt to pitch against as many humans as possible. When drone summer rolled around, I put my 5 highest EN guys in the rotation as a means to manage potential seafat. Vader and Schmidt could handle the starts, so they stayed. Floyd Smith, HoBo and something called Jules Stackhouse ran that part of the schedule. After drone summer, the Rrrs had a huge division cushion, so I didn’t mess much, so the same 5 were usually the starters.

  2. #2
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    Re: 82-0 drone run

    A run average of 9 to 1.6 produces a Pythagorean winning percentage of .969. Therefore, the chances of winning 82 consecutive games with such an expected winning percentage is about .0756, making the theoretical odds of pulling off such a feat is somewhere between 12 to 1 and 13 to 1. Of course the odds of winning some of these games was probably 90-95% and others more like 98-100%, which means the chances of winning all 82 would be lower than 7.56%.
    Psi Phi: Williamsburg Tribe Power (Comm)
    Justice: Jefferson Airplanes ('22)
    TDD: Richmond Rebels (Comm) ('92, '99, '00, '34)
    Psi Sigma: Dillard Dictators (Comm) ('07, '49, '56)
    LCL: NY Lawn Mowers ('93)
    ANB: Edison Electricity ('23, "53)
    BBL: Philadelphia Federalists ('06, '29, '34, '38)
    Recycler: NOVA No Doze ('98, '00, '09, '19)
    VLR: Amritsar Destroyers ('98)
    EBB: Pennsylvania Powder Kegs ('36, '69)
    IBA: Lahaina Luau
    LOL: Fargo Frostbite
    CBF: Cradock Diablos ('59)


    23/58 in World Series

  3. #3

    Re: 82-0 drone run

    7% odds? Slim but not remote. I suppose it was bound to happen eventually.

  4. #4
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    Re: 82-0 drone run

    Quote Originally Posted by perrycarter View Post
    7% odds? Slim but not remote. I suppose it was bound to happen eventually.
    Even if the odds are a bit lower than that, I'm guessing Jar's 2074 team wasn't the first to go 82-0 against drones being that there were 48 human owned teams during the previous 6 seasons of an 82 game drone slate.
    Psi Phi: Williamsburg Tribe Power (Comm)
    Justice: Jefferson Airplanes ('22)
    TDD: Richmond Rebels (Comm) ('92, '99, '00, '34)
    Psi Sigma: Dillard Dictators (Comm) ('07, '49, '56)
    LCL: NY Lawn Mowers ('93)
    ANB: Edison Electricity ('23, "53)
    BBL: Philadelphia Federalists ('06, '29, '34, '38)
    Recycler: NOVA No Doze ('98, '00, '09, '19)
    VLR: Amritsar Destroyers ('98)
    EBB: Pennsylvania Powder Kegs ('36, '69)
    IBA: Lahaina Luau
    LOL: Fargo Frostbite
    CBF: Cradock Diablos ('59)


    23/58 in World Series

  5. #5
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    Re: 82-0 drone run

    They were the first. Everybody has always lost to the drones.

  6. #6
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    Re: 82-0 drone run

    This is impressive, dont let the nay-sayers say nay.
    Fighting Physicists - The Classic League
    "All science is either physics or stamp collecting." -Ernest Rutherford


  7. #7

    Re: 82-0 drone run

    I think the key piece of info Benny is missing is that teams typically don't outscore drones by 7+ runs/game. So it may have been a 7% chance for the Jarrs this year given their performance*, but I don't know how many teams have ever performed at this level before. If everyone was blowing drones out at this rate we should have had an 82-0 year before, but that hasn't been the case. Really impressive.


    *That might be shorting them, it's debateable since Pythagorean expectation often breaks down at extremes anyway blah blah nerd talk

  8. #8
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    Re: 82-0 drone run

    Everyone blows drones (especially clone), but only 1 person has ever gone 82-0. This is just this year data. Two teams outscored drones by 7 runs/game.

    Team aRS aRA dif drone losses
    PC 8.59 2.04 6.55 7
    Lemke 8.85 2.38 6.48 7
    Moden 8.30 2.12 6.18 4
    Jar 8.96 1.56 7.40 0
    Rent 9.59 2.49 7.10 4
    CK 9.20 2.24 6.95 2
    Zubaz 7.09 2.27 4.82 11
    Boicey 7.55 1.99 5.56 7
    Fighting Physicists - The Classic League
    "All science is either physics or stamp collecting." -Ernest Rutherford


  9. #9

    Re: 82-0 drone run

    An expanded version of lemke's table above:

    TeamaRSaRAdifdrone lossesExp W%Exp L82-0 OddsRounded Odds
    Jar8.961.567.400.9692.57.7%1 in 10
    PC8.592.046.5570.9454.50.9%1 in 110
    CK9.22.246.9520.9424.80.7%1 in 140
    Moden8.32.126.1840.9375.20.5%1 in 220
    Rent9.592.497.140.9355.40.4%1 in 260
    Boicey7.551.995.5670.9335.50.3%1 in 300
    Lemke8.852.386.4870.9305.70.3%1 in 380
    Zubaz7.092.274.82110.9047.80.0%1 in 3830

    I shouldn't have been so quick to use shorthand when talking about the +7 run differential, and I think the above does a better job of illustrating what I meant. It looks like a pretty minor difference in performance between Jar and PC, for example, but that extra boost between a 94% win expectation and a 97% expectation makes a huge difference when talking about 82-0. Given jar's performance, going undefeated wasn't the most likely scenario, but it's not shocking either. The rest of us were in the 93-94.5% range, and my guess is that most of us were in that bunch for most previous seasons as well. Maybe zubaz last year was similar to jar but happened to fall just short. For the rest of us in this season, going undefeated would have been really unlikely given our baseline performance.

    The big picture math gets more complicated, but if you say moden's performance is the typical median, each season has about a 3% chance for someone to go undefeated against drones, and there was about a 1 in 5 chance that someone would have done it by now. That's really simplified since it's been a while since my stats classes, but I guess from that perspective it was bound to happen eventually.
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; September 17, 2021 at 05:59 PM.

  10. #10
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    Re: 82-0 drone run

    Good charts, Rent! As the odds of winning game or series of games is based on run percentage rather than run differential, a team which outscores its opponents 10-3 on average is going to have a lower Pythagorean winning percentage than one with a 9-2 scoring average even though the run differential is the same.
    Psi Phi: Williamsburg Tribe Power (Comm)
    Justice: Jefferson Airplanes ('22)
    TDD: Richmond Rebels (Comm) ('92, '99, '00, '34)
    Psi Sigma: Dillard Dictators (Comm) ('07, '49, '56)
    LCL: NY Lawn Mowers ('93)
    ANB: Edison Electricity ('23, "53)
    BBL: Philadelphia Federalists ('06, '29, '34, '38)
    Recycler: NOVA No Doze ('98, '00, '09, '19)
    VLR: Amritsar Destroyers ('98)
    EBB: Pennsylvania Powder Kegs ('36, '69)
    IBA: Lahaina Luau
    LOL: Fargo Frostbite
    CBF: Cradock Diablos ('59)


    23/58 in World Series

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