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Thread: Undefeated

  1. #1
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    Undefeated

    What would it take to go undefeated in CSFBL over 160 + 12 games?

    Could the 25 best players in a league do it against scrubs? Against <1m guys?

  2. #2

    Re: Undefeated

    172 wins in a row is a lot. Your team in redraft just won 76-6 (93%) against drones. A 93% win rate isn't nearly enough - that gives you about a 0.0004% chance of going undefeated, or about 1 in 263,000. Pretty unlikely. I'm assuming you'd want to accomplish this in a reasonable amount of time, so saying "we'd probably get there within 1 or 2 hundred thousand seasons" isn't good enough. However, you only have about 1/8 of the best players and the drones are a lot better than $50k scrubs. If you can get up to a 98% win rate, that puts your chances at a much more reasonable 3%ish per year, so you could succeed most likely within 20 seasons. A 99% win rate gives you a 17.7% chance, so you probably do the full 172-0 every 4-5 years.

    I think the best player at every position and 5 best starters against $50k scrub guys win 98 or 99%+ of the time. So that scenario seems pretty plausible to me. But if it's a team of underdeveloped former 2nd rounders, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is down to 96% or so, and that's all it takes to make this a "once every few centuries" thing - even though the median season is like 154-6 & 12-2, 100% perfection is really hard to obtain.
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; April 16, 2021 at 10:40 AM.

  3. #3
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    Re: Undefeated

    I think Worcester is trying out one side of that test scenario.

    It's not inconceivable that Brian has done test simulations of all 100s vs all 20s to see the extremes. That would be a good benchmark to start with.

  4. #4
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    Re: Undefeated

    you know the sim engine would have a 162-0 team lose to an under .500 team 4-1 in the conference championships.

  5. #5
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    Re: Undefeated

    If my math was right, the odds of the better team winning an individual game would have to be 99.6% in order for 172-0 to be more likely than not (>50% probability). Wonder what the WAR spread between the two teams would have to be to make the odds 99.6/.4 in every game.
    2ML Colonels (1963-) Div: 12, Conf: 5, WS: 4
    TDD Kaws (2103-) Div: 11, Conf: 8, WS: 5
    TCL Tramcars (2122-) Div: 4, Conf: 2, WS: 2
    LoL Brewers (2113-)
    CBF Blues (2145-) Div: 1, Conf: 1, WS: 1
    Past teams in WS: 28-37

  6. #6
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    Re: Undefeated

    That does sound like the Math alright.

  7. #7
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    Re: Undefeated

    I just want to see what a league of only 50K scrubs looks like
    【=◈︿◈=】Aquí llegó tu tiburón (◕,,,◕)

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    2016: 3,437-3,070 (.528) ~ 4 WS
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    2021: 3 WS


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  8. #8
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    Re: Undefeated

    So the inspiration for this is a discussion with my brother about a Hardball 3 season that I played vs Cpu where I went 162-0. Most of my guys hit .400+ (no walks because I swing) and most games were 20+ to <5. But the pressure when games were close was immense

    Damn I had a lot of free time in the 90s

  9. #9
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    Re: Undefeated

    Quote Originally Posted by andujar View Post
    So the inspiration for this is a discussion with my brother about a Hardball 3 season that I played vs Cpu where I went 162-0. Most of my guys hit .400+ (no walks because I swing) and most games were 20+ to <5. But the pressure when games were close was immense

    Damn I had a lot of free time in the 90s
    I can't believe you played 162 gms. I remember feeling like 30 gms in Baseball Sim 1.000 was hard enough.



  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigge View Post
    That does sound like the Math alright.
    I see you, Pigge!

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