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Thread: 2132 Draft Review Thread

  1. #1

    2132 Draft Review Thread

    Quick note - I've made my first major algorithm change in about 5 seasons. The major impact here is rebalancing my position player vs pitcher weights. It's a little complicated but I was undervaluing pitchers and overvaluing position players. I've also set things up to be a bit more flexible with changes going further. This means that the year end trade value rankings will be pretty wonky when you're comparing YoY but we'll deal with that later.

    PickPlayerTeamPot GradeDev GradeOverall Grade
    12B Jim Williams - 22Braggadocio BlowhardsC+BD+
    2P James Moore - 20Cuenca EscobazosA-A+A
    3P Stephan Reid - 23Elgin Spam EatersCAC
    4P Robert Johnson - 22Appalachia Board SweepersC-A-C
    5P Richie Schultz - 22Gatlinburg TramcarsC-A+C
    6CF Paul Miller - 20Frisco ExpressBAA-
    7C Robert Carlson - 21Seattle Golden BearsBD-C
    8P Christopher Rios - 22Fort Worth OutlawsB-C+C+
    92B Arnold Lopez - 20Vista CruisersACA
    10P John Fritz - 21Sun Prairie CardinalsC-A+C+
    11C Kharan Steele - 21Tempe Hot HeadsBB+A-
    122B Stanley Miller - 21Lincoln Top HatsDCD
    133B Jose Simmons - 19Tuktoyaktuk WolverinesB+CB
    14CF Leon Lowery - 18Gowanus CanalsA-B-A-
    15C Antoine Kite - 19SLO WafflersC+B+B
    16SS Migael Tong - 17DPRK Great LeadersC-A-C
    17P Thomas Fortenberry - 20Detroit Collateral DamageB-BB+
    181B Eugene Mumaw - 18Appalachia Board SweepersC-AB-
    19P William Holloman - 21Frisco ExpressC+B-B+
    20SS Charles Quade - 20Fighting PhysicistsB-EC+
    21P Douglas Diggs - 20Vista CruisersC-A+B
    22LF Robert Cruz - 22Gowanus CanalsB-B-B+
    23SS Robert Bryant - 19Vista CruisersB+EB-
    24CF Kenneth Hudson - 21Worcester RocketeersB-C+A-
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; October 26, 2020 at 05:41 PM.

  2. #2

    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    Block 1:

    PickPlayerTeamPot GradeDev GradeOverall Grade
    12B Jim Williams - 22Braggadocio BlowhardsC+BD+
    2P James Moore - 20Cuenca EscobazosA-A+A
    3P Stephan Reid - 23Elgin Spam EatersCAC
    4P Robert Johnson - 22Appalachia Board SweepersC-A-C
    5P Richie Schultz - 22Gatlinburg TramcarsC-A+C
    6CF Paul Miller - 20Frisco ExpressBAA-

    I don't think Williams is a bad player at all. He'll be some kind of solid offensively with plus defense up the middle somewhere. That kind of player is a really good asset! Compared to a typical #1 pick he's not going to stand out much, but "a bit below average for a #1" is still good enough to challenge for a HOF spot. The issue is much more the opportunity cost here, which looks to be absolutely huge. This feels a lot like a (pretty mild) version of the Kapp and Moreno draft - a very good or great position player goes #1, passing up a legendary pitcher at #2. The poor grade comes from that swing and miss.

    Legendary might be a bit strong for Moore. From an overall career projection, I have him as one of the top 30 or so draft prospects dating back to 2009 - but looking just at his ceiling, he's barely in the top 100. The big reason for that Moore is really well developed. His SY is close to maxed already at just 20 years old, and his FI and CO are both in good spots considering his age. It's really rare for players this good to be this close to maxed out, this young. He's obviously somewhat of an overscout, which could mean a high salary, and his EN isn't great for a true ace, which also will hold him back from reaching all-time heights. Those are pretty much nitpicks, though, and this is an amazingly valuable pick for Cuenca. Barring some weird scouting issue, I expect Moore to dominate the coming decade.

    Reid's biggest strength is possibly also his development, as he looks to be maxed basically across his 4 main ratings. 90+ PO/SY is a potent combination, and I think he'll challenge for some all-star teams. The EN is driving a lot of the concern here, as its potential is not ideal - pitchers like Reid can sometimes struggle with their pitch counts, which is not great for a guy with sub 60 EN. The +6 R/L is not a huge deal in my eyes but I know other owners hate seeing it. I think he's pretty clearly the 2nd best pitcher in the draft, and this draft definitely featured a lot of owners hungry for pitching. But I think he's a bit of a reach given the position player options on the board as well.

    Johnson is in a similar boat. I think he was the next best pitcher left, and while he also has poor EN, his FI/CO distribution is a bit better suited to handle it. Not really too much to say here - teams really want pitchers at the top of the draft and if Appy was determined to take a pitcher, they made the right choice. Just not sure that tunnel vision will be worth it in the end.

    Ok, running out of ways to put it - I think teams tunneled a bit too hard on pitching. These grades come AFTER I readjusted my whole ranking system to give pitchers a boost as well - so the first draft of these rankings was throwing D grades out left and right here. My updated evaluation is not that harsh, and Schultz should be a solid starter, if a bit defense reliant. But he's the 3rd straight pitcher with EN questions taken, and the 2nd straight who is clearly never going to be an ace. The position player I'd expect these teams to take is obviously a risk, but at a certain point the safe option doesn't provide enough upside to be worth it. Also I'm not changing the rest of this paragraph but I guess Gatlinburg's DH heavy team setup means they get a pass here, even if the grade doesn't reflect it.

    Frisco is finally the team willing to take a chance on Miller. I still think he's a risk, and he's at best just a DH. But we're talking someone with the potential to have mid to upper 90s SL, with similarly elite SP. He's also fairly young and fairly well developed, avoiding the common issue of his 2 big ratings passing by each other without ever both being maxed. It's entirely possible he pulls an Adam Russell and is pretty much a bust...but I think at #6 that's a much more reasonable risk to take than at #1, and the ceiling here is high enough that it's easy to get excited about this pick.

  3. #3
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    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    hurtful
    No man can be truly free whose liberty is dependent upon the thought, feeling and action of others, and who has himself no means in his own hands for guarding, protecting, defending and maintaining that liberty -Frederick Douglass

  4. #4

    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    Block 2:

    PickPlayerTeamPot GradeDev GradeOverall Grade
    7C Robert Carlson - 21Seattle Golden BearsBD-C
    8P Christopher Rios - 22Fort Worth OutlawsB-C+C+
    92B Arnold Lopez - 20Vista CruisersACA
    10P John Fritz - 21Sun Prairie CardinalsC-A+C+
    11C Kharan Steele - 21Tempe Hot HeadsBB+A-
    122B Stanley Miller - 21Lincoln Top HatsDCD

    From a pure potentials standpoint, Carlson is a very good pick. He's got monster SL, ok supporting ratings, and defense that will work at C, or even at 1B/LF if desired. If he's a big and fast developer, then this pick will work out great for Seattle. Of course, his current ratings matter as well, and those are pretty worrying. His SL is far, far away from being maxed, and the rest of his ratings aren't much closer. I think he'll still have some good years in his prime, but it's unclear how long that prime will last, which bumps down the evaluation here.

    There's a really big difference in price tag between a #4 pick and a #8 pick if you try to make a trade before the list drops. However, Fort Worth was able to get a player at #8 not substantially worse than the players taken at #4 or #5. That's part of why I think Johnson/Schultz were reaches - there's a world where koller, back in the preseason, trades down a few spots, picks up some extra value, and then is able to take Rios instead. Rios is a riskier player for sure, but I actually quite like his elite SY upside, and he doesn't have any major EN issues. Even if the SY doesn't zoom up to max, he'll eventually be a very solid pitcher, and should last for a long time as well. The grade for the pick isn't that great overall because I still think there were better position player options, but considering the pricetag people are putting on pitchers right now, this seems like good value.

    Lopez is kind of like a mini me version of Williams - similar offensive makeups but much worse defensively. That dropoff is totally worth it when you take their draft spots into account, though. Lopez should still be good enough in a corner spot somewhere, and while the overscouted DI is a little worrisome, it should probably be high enough to make him a really nice leadoff hitter...if everything is maxed, at least. The maxed out version of Lopez gets on base a ton with that DI/BA combo and then does a lot of damage once there with his speed. Since his BA is about 45 points away from maxed, though, that perfect world may never be realized. I still really like the pick since the defense and DI shouldn't have too much trouble getting maxed, and in the end it changes my peak projection for him from "top 20 player" to "low level All-star" - still a really good grab at the #9.

    Fritz is yet another pitcher with intriguing ratings and rough EN that probably went a bit too early in this draft. While I don't love the placements of these pitchers, I do agree with the order they're going in, though. So once again this pick at least took the best pitcher available, even if I'm not sure it was the right pick overall. Fritz is kind of just Schultz with better CO, worse SY, and probably not enough EN to throw 200 IP. He'll be worth a starting spot, and this kind of player makes plenty more sense at #10, so it's hard to be too harsh on the pick overall.

    Steele seems like a very solid player to me. He might not be the best long term play, since a lot of his value will come from his BA and SP. There's a good chance his best years come in his early 20s. Still, his DI means he won't fully fall off a cliff in his late 20s, and he's pretty much ready to go immediately after the draft. It's a really nice package overall, even if he's not amazing at any one given thing, and I think this was a really solid pick for Tempe.

    Lincoln has 0 scouting, so it's not like this was a failure of talent evaluation. One of Lincoln's best players was taken a few years ago with almost no scouting, so it is possible to get a little lucky and grab the best player in this kind of situation. That's...not really what happened here, though. Miller will be a bit below average offensively and defensively at his best, and he's a bit behind schedule in his DI - so his best might not happen for a while. He'll be worth a starting spot overall somewhere, but there are still legit difference makers left on the board, which makes this a disappointing missed opportunity.

  5. #5
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    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    I dont see miller as much of a risk at all. He looks fantastic! I also called moore the best pick of the decade and tried to make a trade for pick #1 because of him

    Edit: i meant the frisco miller, i was posting while the block two stuff got put up
    Last edited by Luke_T; October 22, 2020 at 04:21 PM.
    【=◈︿◈=】

    Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace

     
    2016: 3,437-3,070 (.528) ~ 4 WS
    2017: 8,035-6,518 (.552) ~ 8 WS
    2018: 6,226-5,522 (.530) ~ 7 WS
    2019: 3 WS, 2020: 3 WS


    TCLVista Cruisers(2101-)2109, 2125, 2129
    ThrowBCalifornia(2013-2020,2045-)2018, 2053, 2054
    ALTRTAOntario Ocelots(2095-)2098, 2099, 2100
    HRNew York Mets(1961-) 
    CWSUCLA Bruins(1993-) 
    GOAT-1997, 1998
    LEG-2045, 2046, 2047, 2051, 2054
    CarL-2022, 2027, 2031, 2032
    WBC-1925, 1928, 1930, 1937, 1949, 1955
    Dodgers-1953, 1955, 1966
    TML-1964, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1983, 1984
    Sweet-1886, 1888, 1891, 1892, 1897, 1898, 1900
    TDD-2106, 2107
    EP-2003,2013
    AA-2100
    CBF-2132
    TP-1983
    BD-2038
    Blitz-1998
    AAA-2101

  6. #6

    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    Miller is a risk to me because it's only been 5 seasons since we had a draft featuring a DH with potentials of 100 in SL and SP, and that player has generally been a disappointment (although this season is looking much better so far). So it wouldn't exactly be unheard of for Miller to turn out to have much lower SL than you'd expect and for his SP to start dropping very early. If that doesn't happen, Miller will be really good, but there's a lot of unknowns and the positional issues means he doesn't have any other skills to fall back on if his SL/SP aren't as advertised.

    Moore is the pick of the decade because Lombardi was 11 drafts ago, I guess. Antonio Rivera was also a better value pick in my opinion but that was 12 drafts ago, so, sure, I guess I agree.

    also, yes, I love how sarcastic luke's post seems, given the timing. Too many Millers!
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; October 22, 2020 at 04:44 PM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedsFan74 View Post
    hurtful
    ...

    Though, to be honest I was looking primarily at position candidates. I need someone that can help bolster the middle infield and he did seem the best of the bunch....


    but zero scouting... lol

  8. #8
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    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    Russell looks a little different, with higher cn and lower ba. Sorry reds, i would hav taken him (russell) too
    【=◈︿◈=】

    Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace

     
    2016: 3,437-3,070 (.528) ~ 4 WS
    2017: 8,035-6,518 (.552) ~ 8 WS
    2018: 6,226-5,522 (.530) ~ 7 WS
    2019: 3 WS, 2020: 3 WS


    TCLVista Cruisers(2101-)2109, 2125, 2129
    ThrowBCalifornia(2013-2020,2045-)2018, 2053, 2054
    ALTRTAOntario Ocelots(2095-)2098, 2099, 2100
    HRNew York Mets(1961-) 
    CWSUCLA Bruins(1993-) 
    GOAT-1997, 1998
    LEG-2045, 2046, 2047, 2051, 2054
    CarL-2022, 2027, 2031, 2032
    WBC-1925, 1928, 1930, 1937, 1949, 1955
    Dodgers-1953, 1955, 1966
    TML-1964, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1983, 1984
    Sweet-1886, 1888, 1891, 1892, 1897, 1898, 1900
    TDD-2106, 2107
    EP-2003,2013
    AA-2100
    CBF-2132
    TP-1983
    BD-2038
    Blitz-1998
    AAA-2101

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luke_T View Post
    Russell looks a little different, with higher cn and lower ba. Sorry reds, i would hav taken him (russell) too
    Oh, I have no ragerts
    No man can be truly free whose liberty is dependent upon the thought, feeling and action of others, and who has himself no means in his own hands for guarding, protecting, defending and maintaining that liberty -Frederick Douglass

  10. #10

    Re: 2132 Draft Review Thread

    I really struggled between Rios and Steele at 8. Steele would have plugged right in to the top of my lineup and been great there. If I had any decent young pitching in my system I’d have probably gone that route. The elite SY on Rios ended up being my final deciding factor. Hopefully the SY progresses along quickly enough that he gets to enjoy a couple seasons in the upper 90’s

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