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Thread: Who should I take #1 overall?

  1. #21

    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlickLaptop View Post
    Let us know how he looks with the full 7 scout!
    Yes I'm curious of this as well. Along with where the other 2 guys got taken. Maybe we can find a way to help you deal for one of them!

  2. #22
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlickLaptop View Post
    You guys are far overrating #2. The only thing that matters is elite ratings. #2 only has (1) elite rating (BA). High BA not paired with elite DI or elite SL, maes him a 1 trick pony. Just a decent player who can hit for average. Wont consistently get 25HRs or .400 obp. Way overrated.

    #4 is intriguing, because his SY is already high. If you have a high range middle infield, his low PO, high FI combo will result in a high GO/FO pct. His EN does put him up in the 36-40 start range. He will take time to be elite, but he's worth the risk.

    #3 is my pick. He has 2 elite ratings. I dont care if he is a DH. He will be a monster, I promise you. A guy who can get you .450obp year in and year out, matched with 50+ HRs. Sick. The tipping point for me, is his age/salary and his current DI of 93. He should probably bat 1-2 right now, and if his internal decline ratings are favorable, you've got a stud for years to come. If his potentials are 95-100, you've got a HOF player.

    In general, I stay away from super low SY guys, as they dont age quite as well. So that easily eliminates #1 (he also only has 1 elite rating).

    I dont think the risk is quite worth it on #4, and you"ve got such a sure thing at #3. Take him, and thank me later.
    If the numbers on 2 are accurate:
    Actuals: 79/65/99/59/49/34/79/60/72
    Potentials: 78/83/98/73/56/24/79/63/83

    He most certainly will hit 20-25 HRs a year (once he hits 70 SL) and his OBP will be certainly be over .400. Hell, he's going to hit .350 or better with that98 BA and a 78 DI isn't exactly trash.

  3. #23
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    78 is decent. Understand the HUGE implications of logarithmic increases over 50, and that league average for a starting batter is around 67-67-67-67 in many leagues (more or less), and similar for pitchers.

    The logarithmic increase is approximated by the formula for the adjusted rating which is as follows...

    R = rating

    Adjusted Rating (for ratings over 50) =
    [[((R-50)^2.2)/(50^2.2)]*50]+50

    So, its a very steep curve in the 95-100 range... making this ratings extremely valuable.

    Here is a table to help express their rating as it relates to actual game mechanics...
    RatingAdjusted Rating
    5050
    5550
    6051
    6554
    7057
    7561
    8066
    8573
    9081
    9590
    100100

    Its also important to understand that statistical output varies due to randomness (obviously) and depending on the opposing pitcher/defense or batter. The latter will always vary year to year. But, typically pitching and hitting is relatively balanced from league to league.

    But, in any case, in a vacuum a 50 SL would hit an average of 15 HRs vs a league of 50-50-50-50 pitchers (excluding EN as a variable). However, if all ratings are a weighted average of approximately 67, then 67 SL (55 adjusted) becomes the new average. A 78 (64 adjusted) becomes only 9 adjusted linear points above league average.

    Long story short, depending on the league averages, a peak of 78 will result in an average of 18-22 HRs in 600 PA. While an output of 25 (in 600 PA) is certainly possible, it should not be expected.

    In short... its ratings above 90 that matter. Period.
    Last edited by SlickLaptop; September 23, 2020 at 03:02 PM.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
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    2,967

    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlickLaptop View Post
    78 is decent. Understand the HUGE implications of logarithmic increases over 50, and that league average for a starting batter is around 67-67-67-67 in many leagues (more or less), and similar for pitchers.

    The logarithmic increase is approximated by the formula for the adjusted rating which is as follows...

    R = rating

    Adjusted Rating (for ratings over 50) =
    [[((R-50)^2.2)/(50^2.2)]*50]+50

    So, its a very steep curve in the 95-100 range... making this ratings extremely valuable.

    Here is a table to help express their rating as it relates to actual game mechanics...
    RatingAdjusted Rating
    5050
    5550
    6051
    6554
    7057
    7561
    8066
    8573
    9081
    9590
    100100

    Its also important to understand that statistical output varies due to randomness (obviously) and depending on the opposing pitcher/defense or batter. The latter will always vary year to year. But, typically pitching and hitting is relatively balanced from league to league.

    But, in any case, in a vacuum a 50 SL would hit an average of 15 HRs vs a league of 50-50-50-50 pitchers (excluding EN as a variable). However, if all ratings are a weighted average of approximately 67, then 67 SL (55 adjusted) becomes the new average. A 78 (64 adjusted) becomes only 9 adjusted linear points above league average.

    Long story short, depending on the league averages, a peak of 78 will result in an average of 18-22 HRs in 600 PA. While an output of 25 (in 600 PA) is certainly possible, it should not be expected.

    In short... its ratings above 90 that matter. Period.
    Nice analysis.

  5. #25
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    a peak 73 SL is going to be 20+ HR depending on the contact rating, the R/L split, the dimensions of the ballpark, and the composition of starting pitchers in the league. If he's a RH -6, and the league has a typical number of RH SP, then I could see him hitting more on the low end of the projections. But, if he's not taking a big hit vs RHP , then he's going to be a lot closer to 25 HR than 18. (83 pot on CN) Unless of course he is platooned, doesnt get a chance to develop fully, or plays in a large park

    And as you said the ratings over 90 are "huge" 2 has a 98 BA, that in itself according to your analysis should warrant that #2 is the top offensive player presented. And if he needs offense, that is your guy. I don't think that he is being overrated at all, especially with the elite BA.

    Maybe the OP can post a link to this player and we can track him, and see what his R/L splits are. I'm down with posting projections for his career averages and we can see who is closer.
    Last edited by CyMaddux31; October 1, 2020 at 08:06 AM.

  6. #26
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    My assessments above are made with the standard 600PA year. In reality, most starters get far more than 600PA, so he could very well hit 25HRs in a season. Just not likely in 600PAs.

    HR is the most predictable stat in this game, as it is almost entirely based on SL. I spent many hours determining the correlation of thousands of stats and real ratings (retired players) in several leagues. CN is almost negligible with regards to HR output. SL of 100 gives you 10PA/HR, SL of 50 gives you 40PA/HR. And of course, it is not linear, as I described in posts above.

    Everything else being equal, I actually prefer low CN players, for (2) reasons:
    1) Not all outs are created equally. A strikeout takes at least 3 pitches, if not more. I'd rather have a guy strikeout and add to a pitcher's pitch count. The best way to counteract a high EN pitcher is with High DI/Low CN hitters who drive up the pitch counts.
    2) And it never results in a double play (that was the batters fault). These are rally killers. The more DI/BA guys you have, the more you have guys on base, and the less groundballs you want to be hitting.

    I stand by my assessment of the above players.

    100-67-77-100 will be a far better offensvie player (OPS, LWTS, RC, whatever your stat of choice is) than...
    78-83-98-73

    Its not even close. Don't overvalue BA by itself. None of those Big 3 Ratings are going to give you a sure HOFer by themselves. Two 90+ ratings significantly raise those chances.
    Last edited by SlickLaptop; October 2, 2020 at 02:57 AM.

  7. #27
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    I believe that hitters assessment is right. The 100 di / 100 slugger is a stud. Over the BA guy. But will that bat out perform the 93fi / 94 SY pitcher. Which SY is already developed. Depends on need u guess

  8. #28
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Yeah #3 vs #4 (pitcher vs hitter) is super close. But, the other (2) hitters aren't even in the discussion imo.
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  9. #29
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Quote Originally Posted by CyMaddux31 View Post
    If the numbers on 2 are accurate:
    Actuals: 79/65/99/59/49/34/79/60/72
    Potentials: 78/83/98/73/56/24/79/63/83

    He most certainly will hit 20-25 HRs a year (once he hits 70 SL) and his OBP will be certainly be over .400. Hell, he's going to hit .350 or better with that98 BA and a 78 DI isn't exactly trash.
    Originally Posted by SlickLaptop
    You guys are far overrating #2. The only thing that matters is elite ratings. #2 only has (1) elite rating (BA). High BA not paired with elite DI or elite SL, maes him a 1 trick pony. Just a decent player who can hit for average. Wont consistently get 25HRs or .400 obp. Way overrated.

    Long story short, depending on the league averages, a peak of 78 will result in an average of 18-22 HRs in 600 PA. While an output of 25 (in 600 PA) is certainly possible, it should not be expected.

    The OP was kind enough to give us a link to the player in question so we can track him:

    https://www.csfbl.com/player/4964335/view
    Last edited by CyMaddux31; October 18, 2020 at 05:15 PM.

  10. #30

    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    I have 10/10 scouting for the guy I took #1 overall. Here are his ratings with full scouting after one flip:

    Actual: 96/47/66/80/32/24/67/58/52
    Potential: 97/68/76/99/36/25/85/67/54

    Wow, what a monster, especially with that 99 slugging paired with he 97 discipline. I'll let him sit in LM one more year, as I won't truly need him until next year. Then, he will be my new 3rd baseman. Thanks for helping me pick this stud! Excited to watch and see what he can do in his career!

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