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Thread: Who should I take #1 overall?

  1. #41
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Note that the player #2 just had a 3rd year that is in line with what I suggested... 26 HR in 713 PA... equivalent to 21.88 HR per 600 PA. This is what you should expect going forward.
    His LWTS was 38.25. Very good, sure. But not...

    Player #3... who blossomed quite nicely in his 3rd year with 55HR, 1.089 OPS, and LWTS 76.29. This is more or less what you can expect out of him during his continued peak years.

    I went back to the drawing board in season 3... and I came back with the same conclusion
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  2. #42
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Originally Posted by CyMaddux31
    If the numbers on 2 are accurate:
    Actuals: 79/65/99/59/49/34/79/60/72
    Potentials: 78/83/98/73/56/24/79/63/83

    He most certainly will hit 20-25 HRs a year (once he hits 70 SL) and his OBP will be certainly be over .400. Hell, he's going to hit .350 or better with that98 BA and a 78 DI isn't exactly trash.



    Originally Posted by SlickLaptop
    You guys are far overrating #2. The only thing that matters is elite ratings. #2 only has (1) elite rating (BA). High BA not paired with elite DI or elite SL, maes him a 1 trick pony. Just a decent player who can hit for average. Wont consistently get 25HRs or .400 obp. Way overrated.

    Long story short, depending on the league averages, a peak of 78 will result in an average of 18-22 HRs in 600 PA. While an output of 25 (in 600 PA) is certainly possible, it should not be expected.

    The OP was kind enough to give us a link to the player in question so we can track him:

    https://www.csfbl.com/player/4964335/view

    Last edited by CyMaddux31; October 18, 2020 at 05:15 PM.



    Looks like he's doing just about what I said so far......

  3. #43
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    He is averaging 21.91 HR/600PA, which is exactly within the range I predicted.

    But, I've certainly reconsidered my position on super elite (98-100 BA) guys. I recently drafted 2 of these guys myself. My previous calculations didn't fully account for the off target effects (ie other than BA) that this single rating can have, at this level.. The significant increase in doubles (and SLG) and some increase in walks (OBP). My assessment that his OBP would not be consistently over .400 was just plane wrong.

    My overall assessment still says he is a bit overrated, and his OPS isn't quite worth his salary (depending on the type of league). I would still conclude that #3 was the better player, and the correct choice to draft.
    Last edited by SlickLaptop; September 13, 2021 at 09:09 PM.
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    Chicago White Sox [MLB ReMake] (1970-1987) WS: 3-3 (1971, 1972, 1973)
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  4. #44
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    Originally Posted by SlickLaptop
    You guys are far overrating #2. The only thing that matters is elite ratings. #2 only has (1) elite rating (BA). High BA not paired with elite DI or elite SL, makes him a 1 trick pony. Just a decent player who can hit for average. Wont consistently get 25HRs or .400 obp. Way overrated.

    wrong and wrong.

  5. #45
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    Re: Who should I take #1 overall?

    He is averaging 21.91 HR in 600 PA. The average player is 15. I wouldn't call this exceptional, elite, or even "one of the tricks". He hits around .337 BA career (just about exactly where he should be with 98 BA). 79 walks in an average of 716 PA/season is really not great by any stretch of the imagination. His 32 doubles/season are good, not spectacular. He averages 150 singles per season, which is about the only thing impressive from him.

    He hits for average extremely well. I misjudged (was wrong) a moderate DI-elite BA guy's overall ability to get on base. But, it's still nothing impressive, as it has far more to do with his massive amount of singles than his walks. He is a 1-trick pony (right). He hits for average. And $6-8mil is an awful lot to pay for someone who can't do much else.
    Founder & Former Commissioner [ReMake Community, MLB ReMake, AAA ReMake, AA ReMake]
    AA ReMake Commissioner (2124-Present)
    Chicago White Sox [MLB ReMake] (1970-1987) WS: 3-3 (1971, 1972, 1973)
    Los Angeles Dodgers [MLB ReMake] (1988-1989)
    St. Louis Cardinals [MLB ReMake] (1990-1991)
    Rochester Red Wings [AAA ReMake] (1997-2010) WS: 1-0 (2003)
    Hartford Yard Goats [AA ReMake] (2119-Present) WS: 2-2 (2122-23)
    Omaha Storm Chasers [AAA ReMake] (2123-Present) WS: 1-1 (2132)

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