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Thread: When are stolen bases not worth it?

  1. #1

    When are stolen bases not worth it?

    My understanding is that, generally, the SB manager setting should usually be set at 10, even with a relatively slow squad, because the pros just outweigh the cons. (Correct me if that's not considered true).

    However, I have a team that might be a bit of an outlier in that regard. https://www.csfbl.com/team/stats.asp?teamid=1510

    Significantly more homers than doubles. Leading the league in walks. Average to low speeds across the board. Are steals worth the risk here? It feels crazy but I'm considering turning my steals to 0.

  2. #2
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    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    I adjust my active teams on a game to game basis, when possible (especially in the playoffs). Most of the risk is attributed to SP's HR, and the rest due to the Catcher's AR. If both of those are high, then the risk goes way up, and you should definitely scale that setting back.
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  3. #3

    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    I thought HR was accounted for already in the setting? (i.e. all else being equal, players will attempt to steal less against higher HR even on the same setting.)

  4. #4
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    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    I dont know that to be entirely true. I doubt it keeps the same success odds across the board. I dont trust it.
    Founder [ReMake Community, MLB ReMake, AAA ReMake, AA ReMake]
    Former Commissioner [MLB ReMake] (1970-1975, 1977-1979),[AAA ReMake] (1990-2010)
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  5. #5
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    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    I won't set my SB to 10 after this:

    https://www.csfbl.com/game/playbypla...ameid=42426238

    My team is Ranger Danger. It was game 4 of the LCS. We were up 3 games to none. SB was set to 10 because my opponent's catcher had a low-ish AR and I had a fast leadoff man so I thought I'd take advantage.

    Bottom of the 9th, one out. My leadoff man, Leonard Herring, hits a triple to drive in some runs & bring the tying run to the plate (in other words, we are down by TWO runs after his hit).

    Then Herring attempts to steal home and gets caught.

    Ugh.

    The next hitter strikes out, and we lose that game by two. We lose the next 3 games, and don't advance after being up 3-0.

    Had he not been caught stealing home, my best hitter would have come to the plate as the tying run with 2 out. It's not real likely he would have hit the tying home run, but we'd have had at least one more chance. And even if he didn't hit a homer, getting on base would have kept hope alive for one more hitter. But we never found out.

    I set my SB higher than 5 for most every team, but I won't set it to 10 again.

    Cheers,
    Wayne
    Last edited by wfn71; August 24, 2020 at 03:03 PM.
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  6. #6
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    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    Oh, I should point out that it's possible that I'm falling victim to sample size here. It's entirely possible that for every game I've lost on a caught stealing of home (which is probably one out of the tens of thousands of games that I've played), that I'd win 10 other games because I'm stealing extra bases. And if that is the case, then setting SBs to 10 would actually be a good idea.

    I can't give you any numbers to point you in one direction or the other unfortunately. I don't know how to get that kind of data.

    So I'm not really trying to give advice here, just sharing one personal, frustrating, experience.

    Cheers,
    Wayne
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  7. #7
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    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    Wfn, I had a guy try to steal home last playoffs and I asked the admin team about it: I thought stealing home as it used to be (that is runners actively trying to steal home) no longer existed.

    Turns out stealing home never existed, there was just a misleading achievement for 'stealing home' which has been removed. So both of our guys were thrown out trying to score on a wild pitch/passed ball, and thus my understanding is that setting would be governed by baserunning, not steals.

  8. #8
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    Re: When are stolen bases not worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by G Sparks View Post
    Wfn, I had a guy try to steal home last playoffs and I asked the admin team about it: I thought stealing home as it used to be (that is runners actively trying to steal home) no longer existed.

    Turns out stealing home never existed, there was just a misleading achievement for 'stealing home' which has been removed. So both of our guys were thrown out trying to score on a wild pitch/passed ball, and thus my understanding is that setting would be governed by baserunning, not steals.
    That's really screwy. If the admins looked into it, it's probably true. But screwy.

    I didn't know there were WP/PB in the game. Do they happen when runners AREN'T on third, or only when there's a runner on 3B? Are they based on the catcher's RA at all? The pitcher's CO? (and sorry if this is already covered in another forum article...I'm pretty bad about keeping up with the forums outside of my league forums).

    The failed "steal of home" scores as a caught stealing, even if it is actually a WP/PB. The catcher gets a Caught Stealing and a putout, but no assist. You'll sometimes see a catchers with more CS than assists for the season, and I'm pretty sure the CS of home counting as a CS but not an assist is the only way this could happen (because any CS that is a throw out at 2B or 3B should be scored as an assist and a CS). In fact, for the particular game I linked to, you can see that the Catcher, Michael Evans, has 2 defensive CS but only one assist.

    I usually have my baserunning also turned up, but not usually to 10, more like 8 typically. I can't say exactly what it was for that particular game, but I'm guessing between 6 and 8.

    It's kind of frustrating having the manager settings but not really knowing exactly what they do.

    Cheers,
    Wayne
    Leagues
    Beer League: Shiner Bocks
    GOAT:
    Ranger Danger
    Historical Replay:
    Washington Senators/Texas Rangers
    Lawn Chair: Tiki Torches
    MLB ReMake:
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    MLB Str8 8s:
    Cleveland Indians
    MONEYBALL:
    Star City Cosmonauts
    Negro League Tribute: Newark Eagles
    Pacific Coast League: Arkansas Travelers
    Peter Gammons Memorial: Monty Burns' Ringers
    Spring Training: West Plano Nutria

    Despite the high cost of living, it remains quite popular.

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