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Thread: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

  1. #281
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Haha I wouldn’t say that. I would just ask for more info. If he’s fitting the model to the cases data, it could be that testing is governed more like ax^2+bx+c. I certainly wouldn’t expect testing to proceed exponentially the same way that infection does. Very different mechanism.
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  2. #282
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by jellyinsd View Post
    Without intervention or constrained resources, I think natural growth of this kind would almost always be exponential. Can’t think of why that wouldn’t be the case here. Of course resources (e.g. healthy hosts) are always constrained, which is why it usually ends up as a sigmoid.
    Social distancing is intervention, and like you say, there are constrained resources, so I have to agree with Mak's buddy that the growth would not stay exponential for very long.

    In any case, here are the cumulative number of confirmed cases reported in the United States at the end of each of the past 7 days according to the Wikipedia page:

    March 19: 12,018
    March 20: 17,439 [+45%]
    March 21: 23,710 [+36%]
    March 22: 32,341 [+36%]
    March 23: 42,749 [+32%]
    March 24: 52,685 [+23%]- Actually less new cases than the day before!
    March 25: 64,661 [+23%]

    I wouldn't call this pure exponential growth, but it's not flattening the curve, either! And as Bill said, tests are still not as widely available as they should be, so it's likely we don't really know the true number.
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  3. #283
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by rentforfree2790 View Post
    I mean...ideally as few people as possible! How is that a controversial stance???
    It's not nearly as controversial as it should be. You obviously didn't grow up on The Lion King. Everybody living forever is probably not desirable for very long. I'm not saying that the dummies you were referring to are anything other than dummies though.

    On a macro level you want sustainable population growth. On a micro level it's inhumane to say who gets to be born, die, immigrate etc. Somewhere in a dark corner of the government somebody is doing the math on it though, and I'm sure their spreadsheets complain when they enter 0 in the death column.

  4. #284
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    The royal family got it
    【=◈︿◈=】

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace

     
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  5. #285
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Luke_T View Post
    The royal family got it
    Cheesecake factory's got it
    【=◈︿◈=】

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace

     
    2016: 3,437-3,070 (.528) ~ 4 WS
    2017: 8,035-6,518 (.552) ~ 8 WS
    2018: 6,226-5,522 (.530) ~ 7 WS
    2019: 3 WS


    GOATLong Beach Losers(1994-)1997, 1998
    TCLVista Cruisers(2101-)2109, 2125
    WBCVenezuela(1925-1932,1937-)1925, 1928, 1930, 1937, 1949, 1955
    EPSan Onofre(2002)2003
    BrockToronto Marlies(1986-) 
    ThrowBCalifornia(2013-2020,2045-)2018
    LEG-2045, 2046, 2047, 2051, 2054
    CarL-2022, 2027, 2031, 2032
    Dodgers-1953, 1955, 1966
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    Sweet-1886, 1888, 1891, 1892, 1897, 1898, 1900
    TDD-2106, 2107
    AA-2100
    CBF-2132
    TP-1983
    BD-2038
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  6. #286
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Royal families can always be replaced (I learned from watching Justin Kurzel's excellent Macbeth last night), but The Cheesecake Factory can't. It has been almost ten years since I last ate there, but that is a piece of Americana that would be sad to lose.

  7. #287
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    US sliding into 2nd place, we can get to #1 in cases by the end of the day if we try hard.
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  8. #288
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    USA USA!!!!

    As a school administrator with a doctorate in E-Learning, I can simply say that providing "school" to home while addressing special education needs, wifi connectivity issues, lack of devices, delivering meals, working with graduation requirements, students "ghosting" on us, parents concerns, is not going well. I just wish the someone at the federal and our state level would simply shut us down for good or just say "enrichment learning for all" until we come back and provide guidance on how to resolve major issues. Right now each district is trying to solve issues on their own, and it is a hot mess......ahdlshl;kfalsdhf;lkadflasfdjsdk

  9. #289

    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by aztecs01 View Post
    USA USA!!!!

    As a school administrator with a doctorate in E-Learning, I can simply say that providing "school" to home while addressing special education needs, wifi connectivity issues, lack of devices, delivering meals, working with graduation requirements, students "ghosting" on us, parents concerns, is not going well. I just wish the someone at the federal and our state level would simply shut us down for good or just say "enrichment learning for all" until we come back and provide guidance on how to resolve major issues. Right now each district is trying to solve issues on their own, and it is a hot mess......ahdlshl;kfalsdhf;lkadflasfdjsdk
    Agreed. I have 2 special needs kids at home and we’re just doing what we can. Our School really isn’t providing much direction so we’re just grabbing the reigns and having a run at “homeschooling”. Something we’ve always talked about. There is an opportunity in this crisis. Btw I love telecommuting. I hope it is at least a partial option for me when this is over. The way I see it is I have to demonstrate that not only can I do my job at home - I can excel at home and do MORE!


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  10. #290
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by aztecs01 View Post
    USA USA!!!!

    As a school administrator with a doctorate in E-Learning, I can simply say that providing "school" to home while addressing special education needs, wifi connectivity issues, lack of devices, delivering meals, working with graduation requirements, students "ghosting" on us, parents concerns, is not going well. I just wish the someone at the federal and our state level would simply shut us down for good or just say "enrichment learning for all" until we come back and provide guidance on how to resolve major issues. Right now each district is trying to solve issues on their own, and it is a hot mess......ahdlshl;kfalsdhf;lkadflasfdjsdk
    agree completely with you here
    "As you get older, please pass on your knowledge, compassion, enthusiasm for life, love and charity to others when you feel it's appropriate and you are able to. There are always others in more need than us, and that's what life is about." - Anonymous

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