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Thread: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

  1. #241
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Pigge View Post
    It's likely that there is racial variation, so it's probable that this will hit harder among white people than minorities.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigdbpimpin1 View Post
    we are not setup well for success. In places with success *Hubei provence, South Korea, they had huge testing advantages, tracing advantages, and compliance with goverment directives to prevent spread versus the US and European countries.
    However, Germany seems to be doing quite well at 94 deaths against 24,873 cases currently. Also Italy might be misleading for a few reasons. Taken from this article on Italy's death rate:

    But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

    I'm not sure exactly what the means, but when Italy's own health adviser is trying to square the circle on their data being an outlier compared to other countries I think it is slightly reassuring.

  2. #242
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    I'll add one for the slightly reassuring pile. This is a popular article with the medical folks in my department in the last day - can see progress being made in figuring out best practices to get a handle on this stuff - slow the thing down long enough for that **** to take hold.
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  3. #243
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by makila View Post
    Kind of cool site, don't know much about the engine behind it though.

    https://covidactnow.org/
    That's a fascinating but sobering site. If the math is correct, even with social distancing, most states will have overwhelmed health care systems a month from now and new case numbers from COVID-19 will remain over the limit for approximately 4 weeks.
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  4. #244
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    I dont really understand virus stuff, or the flu, but the flu has a new strain or two each year right? What happens if this f****r mutates too. I dont want an annual lockdown haha. Someone smart please help
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  5. #245
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    1. Everybody doesn’t get the flu at the exact same time because people have had it in the population, this is a ****er because it’s new for everybody. Hopefully we aren’t reinventing it every year.

    2. We fix our public health system, because we all know we could get hit with one of these with higher fatality rates any time. Let’s wake up. Or not and we keep going ‘oh ****, nobody warned us’
    Last edited by citizenclone; March 23, 2020 at 09:20 AM.

  6. #246
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    I don't know **** about this either Luke, none of us do everything is changing day to day, we're all trying to sort through what sounds right but it’s all educated guesses.

    There are lots of ways things could go okay (vaccines, virus mutating in positive direction, population that survives the initial shitshow being a lower risk group, etc) or not okay.

    Hope for the best, plan for the worst, be nice to each other?
    Last edited by citizenclone; March 23, 2020 at 10:22 AM.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by citizenclone View Post
    2. We fix our public health system, because we all know we could get hit with one of these with higher fatality rates any time. Let’s wake up. Or not and we keep going ‘oh ****, nobody warned us’
    For what it’s worth. Italy has the second ranked public health system in the world ranked by the World Health Organization. Measured in efficient, life expectancy and public access to medical care.

    You can build a health care system to have the capacity to deal with a global epidemic but 80% of it will sit idle for 98 out of every 100 years.


    I don’t believe the fault is in the health care system but rather a denial of the serious nature of the threat, a delay in closing the borders and isolating the US because of the fear of economic repercussions and a societies mistrust of the Government and Media.

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luke_T View Post
    I dont really understand virus stuff, or the flu, but the flu has a new strain or two each year right? What happens if this f****r mutates too. I dont want an annual lockdown haha. Someone smart please help
    We also have vaccines for the flu to help prevent the spread or severity of it. Sure, theres a new strain every year, but the majority of the virus is unchanged. Makes it easy to update a vaccine. New flu vaccines are like taking someone else's essay and changing it to fit your subject. The body is still the exact same, but the quotes and citations are different. COVID19 is writing your own essay from scratch. There is no outline to follow for a vaccine.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZubaZ View Post
    So I was screwed.. so yes.. i did.. whatever. I bend down, hands behind my back.. and kissed a boy

  9. #249
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by spambox View Post
    For what it’s worth. Italy has the second ranked public health system in the world ranked by the World Health Organization. Measured in efficient, life expectancy and public access to medical care.

    You can build a health care system to have the capacity to deal with a global epidemic but 80% of it will sit idle for 98 out of every 100 years.

    I don’t believe the fault is in the health care system but rather a denial of the serious nature of the threat, a delay in closing the borders and isolating the US because of the fear of economic repercussions and a societies mistrust of the Government and Media.
    I wanted that comment back this morning and just followed it up with general outlook, not looking to go down that discussion road, or rather, look forward to a time when things calm down enough to figure this out. I do think we'll see different outcomes from different systems, but certainly agree some of it was coming no matter what. Your point about mistrust is very important but again speaks to bigger issues that it's hard to get up for discussing while I'm hunkered down. I think it's going to be ugly for awhile and I'm concentrating on family and friends, and hoping you mooks stay well.
    Last edited by citizenclone; March 23, 2020 at 06:35 PM.
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  10. #250
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    Re: The Real Coronavirus Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by MrAfroman06 View Post
    We also have vaccines for the flu to help prevent the spread or severity of it. Sure, theres a new strain every year, but the majority of the virus is unchanged. Makes it easy to update a vaccine. New flu vaccines are like taking someone else's essay and changing it to fit your subject. The body is still the exact same, but the quotes and citations are different. COVID19 is writing your own essay from scratch. There is no outline to follow for a vaccine.
    That is a great analogy! I'll further add that some strains of the flu are so similar that making a new vaccine is analogous to editing an essay on the SAME subject in order to avoid charges of plagarism.
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