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Thread: 2124 Draft Review Thread

  1. #1

    2124 Draft Review Thread

    putting this down here to force myself to do it at some point this week

  2. #2
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    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Creating a thread doesn't work for Joke
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    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Do the last couple years while we wait
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    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MeddlePAL View Post
    Do the last couple years while we wait
    Why not just update that owner ranking based on where people drafted each year. I liked that
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  5. #5

    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    So I'm looking for this to be less of a rankings and more of an evaluation of each player. I'll be using similarity scores to find players from TCL's history that look a lot like the draftees. Due to some limitations with how defensive ratings are tracked with position changes, I had to make some manual adjustments so this definitely won't be perfect and I could easily miss some examples, but I'm still finding this to be an interesting way to look at players.

  6. #6

    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Pick #1
    SS Christopher Morris

    Similar Players:

    Similarity RankNameDraft SpotCareerPeakJAWS
    1Matthew Humphrey1-3 (2097)42.036.839.4
    2Billy Simpson1-16 (2029)21.018.919.9
    3Willie Capetillo1-3 (2062)39.527.933.7
    4Robert Jordan2-25 (2011)19.521.720.6
    5Frederick Reyes1-6 (2097)41.527.734.6
    6Christopher Satchell1-9 (2082)12.717.315.0
    7James Turner1-8 (2093)14.811.513.2
    8Zackrey Sheen1-3 (2077)29.627.528.6
    9Christopher George1-5 (2073)11.113.112.1
    10Kenny Peete1-4 (2089)35.227.431.3

    This is a fairly interesting group of comps for Morris. Unfortunately, no HOFers on this list, which doesn't bode extraordinarily well. He's in a weird place as a 22 year old defense only player who is somewhat underdeveloped - when his value is 100% dependent on his RA, he needs it to be as high as possible for as long as possible. There are some pretty upsetting possible futures in that list without any superstars. The good news is that Morris is fairly unique - with 1 exception, there's no close match, and Morris is a better fielder and potentially better hitter than all of these guys. The exception is Humphrey, who is shockingly similar while also being the best player on the list. While that's reassuring, Humphrey was better developed than Morris when drafted, obviously couldn't hit at all, and fell off a cliff when his RA started declining at age 29. I'm still not sure we can expect a HOF level career out of Morris but an elite fielding SS will at least always have a great floor to work with.
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; January 14, 2020 at 01:50 PM.

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    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Robert Jordan helped win DPRK’s first championship. Did fall off a cliff with full drills and dev though.
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    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    I like a rangey SS as much as they next guy, but I don't think I'd have taken one over some of the other stuff available... if you have the #1 you have several seasons of rebuilding ahead usually and its easy enough to find a competent SS in that time frame without losing out on HOF caliber offense or pitching.

    What do the columns of numbers mean in this table? Career? Peak? JAWS?
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    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Jaws?




  10. #10

    Re: 2124 Draft Review Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MeddlePAL View Post
    I like a rangey SS as much as they next guy, but I don't think I'd have taken one over some of the other stuff available... if you have the #1 you have several seasons of rebuilding ahead usually and its easy enough to find a competent SS in that time frame without losing out on HOF caliber offense or pitching.

    What do the columns of numbers mean in this table? Career? Peak? JAWS?
    Sorry, I guess I haven't posted about a lot of this stuff in months and months. I have a big tracking document of all players in TCL history, and I've calculated their WAR (wins above replacement). Basically a player valuation metric trying to include both offense and defense. Career is the sum total of all their career WAR, Peak is just the player's best 7 seasons, and JAWS is the average between those 2. As a VERY sketchy frame of reference:

    JAWSDescriptionRandom Example
    0ScrubDaniel Palmer
    10Bench Player/Borderline Short-Term StarterJustin Knupp
    20Multiple Year StarterWahab Halwani
    30Borderline All-StarMark James
    40Multiple Time All-StarYang Wook Gangnam
    50Arguable HOFerJames Whitehead
    60Clear HOFerJim Welch
    70Team LegendBrian Lee
    80All-Time GreatGeorge Cook

    There are a lot of ways you can get to, say 50 JAWS - you could average 7 WAR (close to MVP level) for 7 seasons, and then put up just 2 WAR total for the rest of your career (51 career WAR, 49 Peak WAR, 50 JAWS). Or you could average 4 WAR (good, a bit below all-star level usually) every year for 18 seasons (72 career WAR, 28 Peak WAR, 50 JAWS). Obviously those 2 players would be extremely different. So it's more of a starting point for arguments than a final declaration.
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; January 14, 2020 at 02:40 PM.

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