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Thread: 2117 Playoffs

  1. #121
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Wayne, PA
    Posts
    25,670

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Congrats to Rent and Gowanus on the 3 peat! I was going to say this was the first time a TCLer accomplished the feat since Wolfe's run with Canterbury, but Rent stole my thunder
    Psi Phi: Williamsburg Tribe Power (Comm)
    Justice: Jefferson Airplanes ('22)
    TDD: Richmond Rebels (Comm) ('92, '99, '00, '34)
    Psi Sigma: Dillard Dictators (Comm) ('07, '49, '56)
    LCL: NY Lawn Mowers ('93)
    ANB: Edison Electricity ('23, "53)
    BBL: Philadelphia Federalists ('06, '29, '34, '38)
    Recycler: NOVA No Doze ('98, '00, '09, '19)
    VLR: Amritsar Destroyers ('98)
    EBB: Pennsylvania Powder Kegs ('36, '69)
    IBA: Lahaina Luau
    LOL: Fargo Frostbite
    CBF: Cradock Diablos ('59)


    23/58 in World Series

  2. #122
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    DC
    Posts
    40,047

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Nicely done, Rent. You shut down the best offensive team I’ve ever had. Good win. Congrats!
    IBA '00, '09, '15, '16, '17, '23, '25, '26, '35, ret. L/B '14, '16, '17, '22, '25, ret., ‘83, ‘84. KSTW '87, '89, ret. HOFm '92, '93, '82, ret. Blitz '12, '15, ret. LoL '98, '02, ret., '04. TCL '18, '20, '21, '41, '47, '48, '84, '85, '87, '89, '91, '93, '19, '21. FOB '41, '43, ret.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZubaZ View Post
    60 Jelly = godless Better than you

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    FL
    Posts
    51,705

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Nice going rent.

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    The Best Place on Earth - Austin, TX
    Posts
    54,091

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Congrats Remt. The sun shines on a dogs *** occasionally. Just the way of the world. That’s a saying, I didn’t necessarily mean you. I’m sure you deserved this. Even a broken clock deserves to be right twice a day. I’m sure you deserve a lot more. I was just saying. Congrats and stuff. #Sincere #FollowMeOnVine #IsThatStillAround? #RemtIsSo...

  5. #125

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Your punishment for letting me win 3 in a row is now I get to bask in the glory. This was my 7th TCL title, which is just enough where each one feels differently but not enough where the emotions have really repeated yet. So now I get to rant and rave and compare them all.

    First, because it's me, here's a complicated table that only I will care about, with my team's numbers, my opponents by round, and my odds of winning each round based on our regular season success:

    YearWAdj WRankDCS AdjDCS RankDCS OddsLCS AdjLCS RankLCS OddsWS AdjWS RankWS OddsTot WTot RankTot Odds
    19989289.6586.9854%87.3753%99.3137%273.51610.4%
    206298102.1194.5361%93.7562%88.8768%277.01525.7%
    209497101.92107.4142%95.7359%87.4870%290.51217.1%
    20969091.3390.2452%105.2131%87.1756%282.4128.9%
    21159196.63100.3145%83.1868%83.7767%267.11620.5%
    21169697.3192.9456%74.81778%85.7766%253.52828.8%
    21179289.9578.11466%92.3347%104.3130%274.7189.2%

    And now, because it's still me, here are some rankings of them all, by how great the win felt:

    #7: 2096. My 2nd title with Gowanus. That table says it was actually my least likely playoff run, mostly because I got hilariously lucky against a vastly superior French Lick team in the LCS. I had a good not great team, it wasn't their 1st title of that run, and I faced a fairly forgettable Appalachia team in the WS and won in pretty straightforward fashion. I love all my titles but this was the least special in the moment.

    #6: 2116. This ranks ahead of the last one only because it was my 2nd consecutive win. But the path and context brings it down. I had already won one with this squad, so the glow of building a champion had worn off a bit. The team was actually great in retrospect in a year with a lot of parity, and I made a big splash at the deadline to increase my chances. But it was hard to feel amazing about barely scraping by a brutally awful SLO team in the LCS, and then also hard to feel great about sweeping a very weak Mexico team in the WS. The best moment of the run came with a complete game SHO in game 7 in the LCS, which again, never should have needed to happen. It should have been my easiest win based on the teams I played and wasn't, so the emotions were kind of mixed, and the whole thing felt kind of like a make-good from my 2112-2114 teams that failed to win anything.

    #5: 1998. My first win. I was 17 years old. I found out I won probably in a high school computer lab or something. It definitely felt great to stop clone's 3-peat, but it also felt like the start of a big run of my own, which didn't really pan out at all. I remember the WS felt kind of anti-climatic because I was stretched to the limit in the LCS, and that team's pitching was Wilkinson and a bunch of unreliable guys, but we won in 6 with Wilk only pitching once - felt weird to build around an ace and then almost not need him to beat the best team in the league.

    #4: 2115. My first win with this current squad. I had 3 straight dominant years right before this where we folded hard in the playoffs, and this year's team was much weaker in the regular season, and it really felt like the window was closing hard. I had a fantastic pitcher in Ruggerio and a once-in-a-generation player/salary cap problem in Woo, and it really felt like I was going to waste both of their primes. This run loses some points because the series that should have been hard (the DCS against Fighting) was a lopsided sweep, while the series that should have been much easier were more difficult. Like 2116, this year felt kind of lucky due to dodging the strong teams in Spit Ball, which took away some of the luster. Still, the first win with a squad feels great, and it gave Ruggerio his defining moment with a SHO in game 7 of the WS.

    #3: 2094. The sweetest part of this win was that it was the Gowanus franchise's first ever. #7left turned into #6left. Like 1998, it felt like the beginning of a big run, and this time I actually pulled the run off. The team was really good and really well-rounded. That wasn't the best DCS ever, but it was one of just 4 where both teams finished with 200+ total xRAA, so it felt great to beat a better Fighting team. Little did I know I'd pull of the same feat a bunch more times over the next 20 seasons. Breaking the curse felt great, and it also feels great to have gotten it done before 4 other teams all broke their drought within the next decade. Other than the DCS though, the run itself was not super special.

    #2: 2117. This year. The 3-peat is of course very rare. But this is also one of my more cobbled together teams. It's the least home-grown squad I've ever won with. It's the only one without a true ace, as Ruggerio faded hard. It's fairly old. It vindicates my team-building efforts as I've had basically no scouting for 7 years and have carried the highest paid player in league history over that time. It's also the first time I faced a truly hard challenge in the WS since 1998. DPRK was a truly dominant team this year, and this victory feels like the most earned one I've had. The DCS was nothing special, but there were no cupcakes afterwards, and I had to really earn those last 2 series. The run was also a blast to watch, with multiple walk-off wins and late inning comebacks.

    #1: 2062. This one still feels the best. I built one of the most unique pitching staffs in league history, with the most bonkers pitcher I've ever owned, and then suffered through 6 straight seasons of early playoff exits. I had a pitcher win 30 games 4 years in a row, and couldn't get closer than a couple games away from winning the LCS. It was easy to feel like my 1 WS, in a previous life, with a different team, was a relic of a different era and I'd never win again. The window seemed about to slam shut. The breakthrough in 2062 felt so cathartic. It doesn't matter that the competition wasn't amazing. It doesn't matter that the Cuenca squad in the WS shouldn't have been able to push us to 7 games. I remember setting my rotation up for Moreno and changing my settings to -50% - knowing that everything rested on his shoulders. Seeing that we blew them out and that Moreno through 1 last SHO to win it is probably the best CSFBL feeling I've had.
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; June 8, 2019 at 01:45 PM.

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    DC
    Posts
    40,047

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Nice write-up. Glad we could make it special for you.
    IBA '00, '09, '15, '16, '17, '23, '25, '26, '35, ret. L/B '14, '16, '17, '22, '25, ret., ‘83, ‘84. KSTW '87, '89, ret. HOFm '92, '93, '82, ret. Blitz '12, '15, ret. LoL '98, '02, ret., '04. TCL '18, '20, '21, '41, '47, '48, '84, '85, '87, '89, '91, '93, '19, '21. FOB '41, '43, ret.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZubaZ View Post
    60 Jelly = godless Better than you

  7. #127
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    FL
    Posts
    51,705

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    The dismantleship was happy to serve you

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Wayne, PA
    Posts
    25,670

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    Terrific analysis, but even not being in the league it's hard for me to imagine that the 2116 World Series title wasn't the least exciting for you. Consider:

    1) You were the defending champion and had the best team in the league
    2) You barely squeaked by a bum team in the LCS and faced a relatively underwhelming team in the WS
    3) No exhilarating series wins like the 2096 LCS over French Lick

    It looks to me as about as thrilling as the 1999 Yankees march to the World Series title, while 2096 seems like more of an analog to their 1996 win. Yes, the 1996 World Series is the only time I've ever rooted for the Yankees in a playoff series most because I hated the Braves dominance as a Phillies fan.

    Like I said, I'm not you and I wasn't in the league.
    Psi Phi: Williamsburg Tribe Power (Comm)
    Justice: Jefferson Airplanes ('22)
    TDD: Richmond Rebels (Comm) ('92, '99, '00, '34)
    Psi Sigma: Dillard Dictators (Comm) ('07, '49, '56)
    LCL: NY Lawn Mowers ('93)
    ANB: Edison Electricity ('23, "53)
    BBL: Philadelphia Federalists ('06, '29, '34, '38)
    Recycler: NOVA No Doze ('98, '00, '09, '19)
    VLR: Amritsar Destroyers ('98)
    EBB: Pennsylvania Powder Kegs ('36, '69)
    IBA: Lahaina Luau
    LOL: Fargo Frostbite
    CBF: Cradock Diablos ('59)


    23/58 in World Series

  9. #129

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    For Jelly/Luke, here's 20 years worth of the league's history, taking into account wins adjusted for divisional and team strength, and expected wins based on the team's draft history:

    FranchiseAvg WAvg Adj WAvg Exp WAvg Diff21172116211521142113211221112110210921082107210621052104210321022101210020992098
    Minnetonka Saints82.786.169.116.978.6 (11.6)70.1 (4.4)62.6 (-3.4)67.8 (1.1)86.6 (18.2)90.6 (22.7)88.7 (19.2)102.8 (34)92.2 (22.2)83.7 (13.6)79.4 (8.2)91.8 (21.6)96.6 (26.3)97.9 (27.9)104.8 (35)93.7 (24.1)89.7 (19.2)91.1 (21.3)74.4 (4.7)77.9 (7.1)
    Gibraltar Rock Apes88.189.575.51475.3 (10)74.3 (10.1)77.3 (13.5)70 (5.1)76.3 (10.7)88.2 (19.9)78.3 (7.6)85.4 (11.1)91.9 (14.5)79.7 (-0.4)100 (17.1)98 (14.4)102.5 (18)106.5 (21.9)112.7 (28.5)100.4 (16.8)101.8 (20.9)102.4 (22.7)83.8 (6.4)85.3 (11.6)
    Detroit Collateral Damage8582.772.210.582.3 (0.4)78.1 (-3.6)80.7 (1.8)81.5 (4)75.2 (0.2)90.1 (17.8)90.6 (22.2)78.6 (13.9)62.2 (-0.7)68 (6.4)74.8 (13.7)69.1 (6.4)87.3 (22.9)84.3 (15.3)80.9 (10.3)87.5 (13.8)100.4 (23.8)102.6 (23.5)96.5 (16.3)83.3 (1.9)
    DPRK Great Leaders82.182.372.110.2104.3 (22.4)94.2 (11.9)99 (16)92.1 (9.1)85.1 (2.5)85.8 (4.5)78.2 (-2.1)84.6 (5.2)81.6 (3.3)80.6 (5.6)74.8 (2)81.5 (12.2)73 (6)71.1 (6)77.5 (13.9)62.7 (0.8)71 (10.7)83.8 (24)81.2 (23)83.7 (27.1)
    Mexico Cows80.685.477.67.982.1 (-0.5)84.3 (2.2)81.1 (0.2)91.1 (11.1)94.2 (15.4)90.7 (13.2)87.4 (12)81.6 (7.3)74.9 (2.1)57.5 (-13.5)56 (-16.6)71.3 (-1.9)65.9 (-9.3)78.9 (1.7)101.1 (22)104.7 (25.1)106.8 (26.1)101.8 (21.5)92.2 (12.3)105.6 (27.4)
    Humboldt Hydro81.885.778.8769.3 (-1.7)66.7 (-5.3)72.9 (-0.4)78.5 (4.8)71.5 (-4.5)75.6 (-1.9)76.6 (-2.9)96.4 (15.4)87.6 (5.6)100.1 (17.7)93.7 (10.3)99.3 (15.8)97.6 (13.5)103.2 (21.4)110.6 (29.4)99.1 (19.3)89 (10.5)78.8 (1.8)74 (-4)74 (-5.4)
    Easton Bruins80.880.173.86.392.7 (16.1)77.9 (4.5)69.3 (-0.4)71.8 (3.9)70.1 (2.9)72.3 (4.6)70.8 (2.6)68.7 (-1.5)81.3 (8.4)80.4 (5.8)74.4 (-0.8)83.8 (7.6)86.6 (10.5)90.9 (14.6)91.5 (15.1)80.3 (2.5)83.3 (6.9)88.7 (12.3)82 (4.7)84.1 (5.7)
    Misty Mountain Hoppers83.386.781.25.578.4 (6.8)87.4 (13.6)92.1 (17.4)95.5 (18.5)91.5 (12.9)77.3 (-2)94.8 (14.5)95.1 (12.7)96.4 (12.8)82.1 (-2.7)85.9 (1.5)84 (-2.5)78.7 (-7.6)81.8 (-2.9)93.2 (8.3)93.9 (10.4)91.8 (9.1)81.6 (-0.4)72.4 (-9.3)80 (-1.4)
    Tempe Hot Heads8083.378.25.184.2 (0.8)85.7 (5.5)83.7 (4.7)91.5 (16.7)64.4 (-6.2)54.7 (-14.2)64.9 (-2.3)71.4 (5.2)68.9 (1.3)71.9 (3.3)79.3 (7.3)80.2 (3.3)92.1 (13.4)98 (15.2)101 (16.5)102 (15.7)99.7 (10.8)93.9 (4)88.8 (-0.9)89 (1.2)
    Gowanus Canals84.383.580.33.189.9 (2.4)97.3 (7.3)96.6 (5.2)104.9 (13.4)107.6 (18.2)100.7 (13.1)91.3 (7.4)94.3 (13.5)72.8 (-5.1)72 (-2.5)82.9 (10.8)71.4 (1.1)63.3 (-6.4)74.4 (5.6)47.6 (-23.4)66.4 (-7.6)70.2 (-6.1)79.5 (-1)91 (8.2)95 (8.4)
    Fighting Physicists84.782.579.82.776.9 (-3.8)92.9 (11.7)100.3 (17.2)92.3 (8.8)92.9 (10.3)96.6 (14.7)99.3 (19.8)88.6 (10.2)81.9 (5.9)84.9 (11.9)79.9 (7.7)72.4 (0.7)50.5 (-21.6)62.1 (-10.9)58.4 (-18.8)59.7 (-20.1)75.3 (-7.5)81.4 (-4.6)110.5 (20.6)93.3 (2)
    Sun Prairie Cardinals78.877.576.41.192.3 (14.3)76.6 (1.5)67.1 (-6.2)68.3 (-1.8)52.9 (-16.5)52 (-17.1)63.7 (-8.2)56.4 (-18.3)70.6 (-6.5)83.1 (2.3)91.9 (9.5)95.6 (12)99.6 (14.7)93.4 (9.1)93 (11.7)84.5 (5.8)92 (15.3)80 (6.2)72.2 (0.1)64.5 (-6.8)
    SLO Wafflers82.18079.90.187.5 (9)74.8 (-5.1)80.5 (-0.9)85.9 (3.1)88.2 (3.6)82.4 (-2.7)85.6 (1.5)85.8 (1.9)83.3 (1.4)98 (17.1)86.6 (8.7)68.7 (-7.1)88.5 (13.5)61.8 (-13.4)69.8 (-6.9)65.8 (-11.1)76 (-1.7)71.5 (-7.2)76.6 (-3.3)82.4 (1.5)
    Appalachia Board Sweepers80.580.280.6-0.558.4 (-15)75.3 (1.4)71.2 (-5.2)82.3 (4.1)90.3 (11.7)94.6 (14.7)82.9 (2.3)91.7 (12.6)96.9 (19)89.5 (11)84.4 (5.1)77.6 (-2.7)82.1 (1.9)74.4 (-6.6)76.4 (-4.6)69.4 (-13.7)66.3 (-19.5)76.8 (-10.7)77.4 (-11.1)85 (-4.8)
    Fort Worth Outlaws79.87878.8-0.978.1 (-1.9)90.5 (12.6)77.9 (1.1)71.2 (-6.3)82.6 (5.2)81.8 (5.3)85.5 (9)73.6 (-2.6)78.5 (2.5)66.9 (-10.6)74.7 (-3.3)76.3 (-2.3)63.9 (-16.1)71.7 (-9.8)68.6 (-12.5)89.7 (8.2)78.6 (-2.7)76.4 (-4.5)86.7 (5.9)86 (5.7)
    Waterloo Worms of Woe80.280.882-1.284.4 (7.6)72.9 (-5.7)78.7 (-0.7)78 (-1.8)104.6 (24.1)88.8 (5.3)70 (-13.4)85.6 (1.3)86.6 (2.8)81.5 (-3.9)75.9 (-9.7)79.3 (-6.4)88.2 (2.6)82.6 (-2.2)84.5 (1.9)73.9 (-8)70 (-11.8)72.8 (-7.2)76.5 (-3.3)80.7 (3.9)
    Prontera Knights79.275.879.7-3.876.2 (-2.6)73.7 (-4.6)68 (-10)78.5 (-0.5)71.9 (-7.6)69.6 (-10.2)75.3 (-6.5)72.8 (-9.5)75.5 (-7)86.9 (4.7)80.7 (-3)62.8 (-21)86.7 (2.9)84.4 (1.4)78.1 (-3.3)80.4 (0.9)76.1 (-0.6)76.9 (2.3)73.7 (0.6)68.6 (-2.8)
    Worcester Whirlybirds7977.484.2-6.871.1 (-7.7)78.7 (1.5)85.2 (10.4)70.4 (-3.9)79.1 (4.1)66.1 (-11.6)69 (-10.4)76.4 (-4)89.5 (7.6)91 (8)86.8 (2.3)83 (-2.5)73 (-12.2)82.4 (-5.4)56.2 (-33.8)88.9 (-3.3)74.2 (-18.8)72.2 (-21.3)78.6 (-15.2)75.2 (-20.7)
    Mong Kok Baisimai78.47888.4-10.381.1 (-7.7)93.4 (3.7)94.5 (4.6)82.7 (-6.4)85.7 (-5.3)87.4 (-2)75.3 (-14.1)86 (-2.5)78 (-9.2)67.9 (-18.9)62.6 (-23)81.2 (-5)78.6 (-7.9)75.7 (-10)65.1 (-21.2)67.1 (-19.6)73.2 (-14.9)75.1 (-13.2)71.2 (-19)78.8 (-14.9)
    Seattle Golden Bears69.166.879.8-13.191.7 (5.3)69.3 (-16.3)66.8 (-17.2)64.7 (-20.7)39.1 (-45)52.3 (-31.9)69 (-14.1)63.6 (-18.6)73.8 (-7.9)102 (20.6)90.1 (10.5)74.2 (-3.5)69.7 (-6)42.9 (-31.9)54.3 (-19.8)46.1 (-27.5)50.8 (-23.2)60.5 (-14.4)76.3 (0.1)77.8 (0.6)
    Cuenca Escobazos76.773.386.5-13.276.2 (-14.6)77.1 (-16.4)83.1 (-12.8)93.1 (-4.2)76.6 (-20.1)85.7 (-11.4)94 (-1.1)66.6 (-28)61.5 (-30.6)71.8 (-19)68.8 (-20)74.6 (-11.2)60.8 (-22.2)62.8 (-17)68.7 (-10.7)71.4 (-4.9)64.7 (-10)72.1 (-2.2)74.1 (2)61.2 (-10.3)
    Canberra Corroboree Frogs77.775.788.9-13.374.7 (-7.7)77 (-7)76.4 (-8.3)78.3 (-6.1)88.2 (1.1)79.6 (-6.8)75.6 (-14.4)73.7 (-16.7)65.9 (-26.6)67.4 (-25.9)82.5 (-12)84.2 (-9.3)82.7 (-11.9)87.5 (-6)66.5 (-25.9)76.8 (-14.5)67.9 (-21.2)68.9 (-18.3)71.5 (-13.4)68.1 (-14.8)
    Braggadocio Blowhards72.573.587.5-1464.6 (-28.4)66.7 (-29.2)73.1 (-25.4)64.2 (-35.4)83.9 (-15.7)98.6 (-0.4)86.2 (-11.4)80.4 (-15.8)88 (-6.6)76 (-16.1)65.9 (-22.3)78.6 (-7.4)72 (-10.3)59.9 (-20.1)75.6 (-1.8)58.1 (-16.4)65.5 (-7.4)66 (-7.8)71 (-3.3)76.2 (2)
    Cincy Sabermetrics73.371.588.8-17.369.1 (-15.4)83.5 (-0.3)80.3 (-3)64.9 (-17.2)61.8 (-19.7)56.2 (-25.9)67.1 (-17.4)56.3 (-30.3)78.3 (-11)76.6 (-14.8)88.1 (-4.3)79 (-14.3)77 (-17.6)83.1 (-11.9)60.4 (-33.3)82.8 (-11.2)74.7 (-18.8)59.9 (-32.1)66.4 (-23.1)63.7 (-24.6)
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; June 13, 2019 at 02:13 PM.

  10. #130

    Re: 2117 Playoffs

    To do list:

    I have penalties recorded going back to 2076, record them as far back as possible
    Import this all into Google Docs
    Figure out a way to make this actually viewable
    Reassure people that if they haven't owned their team for the full 20 years, this doesn't mean a ton
    Readjust the numbers to account for higher marginal win totals - this is right now very #wineverysimcrew heavy. If you are expected to win 60 wins and win 70, that's a gain of +10 the same as if you were expected to win 85 and won 95. But the former situation doesn't impact your playoff or WS odds at all and is arguably worse for your team in the long-term, while the latter situation means you get huge increases in both sets of odds. Would love to weight win totals to include this.

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