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Thread: P Anthony Swingle -- Wow

  1. #1
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    P Anthony Swingle -- Wow

    P Anthony Swingle just finished his 22nd season (as we were eliminated from the LCS in 4 games). Anyone manages to play and be effective for 22 seasons has to be pretty good, but he has been REALLY good.

    Quick summary of his career numbers to this point in case you don't want to read this whole post: 388-134, 2.34 ERA. 2nd most wins, 6th best ERA. 1208 career LWTS (1st). 11 Cy Youngs, 19 All-Stars. 5 World Series Rings. 1 Hall of Fame (presumably; he hasn't retired yet).

    He started his career at age 20, the year after he was drafted (he was the 10th pick in the 2054 draft). I was thrilled that he made it to me at that pick. I knew he'd be good; my biggest concern was whether he'd have enough EN to be a starter, because his potential EN is mis-scouted, making him look like his potential EN could be in the 40s. Luckily his EN potential was actually about 59, and it was enough, combined with his high SY and solid CO, to let him pitch 7 innings a game for 32 games a year -- for 22 years.

    Swingle has 388 career wins, He's 41, and I'm kind of hoping he'll return for one more season and somehow eke out 12 wins to get to 400 (though his EN is down to 40 and will probably drop again so it will be tough).

    His first season he closed for me (47 saves vs. 6 blown, 1.91 ERA, All-Star). It was his only season as a reliever. In hindsigth, I wish I'd started him that year, but his EN was low and I felt like he wasn't one of my top 5 starting pitchers. If I had started him that year, though, he might have 400 wins now.

    Since his rookie season, he has nine 20 win seasons (and remember, he's only starting 32 games/year). He has 6 seasons with an ERA in the 1s.

    For his career, he's 388-134, ERA 2.34. 4287 strikeouts. 528 QS in 681 starts. 91 CG and 28 ShO. In the playoffs he's 22-10 with a 2.52 ERA and 38 QS in 51 tries. Oh, and 5 WS rings.

    One big thing though: He has 11 Cy Youngs. 11. In 22 seasons. He also has 19 All-Star appearances in 22 seasons. He missed this year, two years ago, and 4 years ago, as he's on the downward slope of his career (even though his ERAs the past 4 seasons are 3.67, 3.25, 2.18 and 2.60, the low EN kept his IP and win totals down).

    Historically, he's one of the best pitchers in this league, but maybe not quite #1, but there is room for debate.

    He's #2 in games started (5 behind Hall of Famer Bosch, Ralph).

    10th in IP.

    2nd in Wins (Barnett, Nick, who he won't catch. Barnett has 435). BTW, the next highest active player is Kimmel, Eleos, with 226.

    17th in Ks. At his peak, he's was a bit above average in Ks, but it's not his specialty.

    #1 in QS. He has 528, and the next highest is Barnett again, with 484. That's partly because of the sheer number of seasons and games that Swingle has played, of course.

    Swingle is 6th in career ERA. Two active players rank ahead of him (Bennett, Richard with a 2.09 and Edwards, Richard with 2.30), so they may fall behind him if they continue to play & age.

    Another pitcher ahead of him in ERA is Baird, Forrest, who has a monster 1.83 ERA, in 419 career starts. So per game, Baird is quite a bit better. I guess the debate is 419 starts with a 1.83 ERA vs. 681/2.34. It is a full half run difference though.

    Swingle is #1 in career LWTS with 1,208.17. Barnet is next with 1,144.10, and then Baird with 1,047.81. xRAA is similar.

    Without doing a lot of digging, I think those guys are the top 3 in league history. I'm not sure the order I'd put them in. Barnett had an awesome 92 EN, so he pitched a ton of innings every season, and you didn't have to worry about SEAFAT or relief pitchers, and you could start him 40 games, and 3 games in a playoff series if you wanted to. His career ERA was 2.58, so he's a little worse than Swingle or Baird per inning. Barnett played 19 seasons, so he has longevity.

    Baird had that amazing 1.83 career ERA, and his potential EN was 75, so he could give you 260 IP on 32 starts every year during the best part of his career. His career was shorter, though, at only 14 seasons. A shame, because his ratings were still looking pretty decent when he retired (though far from his career best numbers).

    Baird and Barnett were contemporaries: Baird was drafted in 2035, Barnett in 2036. Barnett retired in 2058, so his career overlapped Swingle's for 4 seasons. Baird retired in 2053, the year before Swingle was drafted.

    Baird won 8 Cy Youngs (in 14 years) and Barnett won 3. So Swingle has them both beaten handily in that regard. I do have to admit, though, that since Baird and Barnett played at the same time in the same Division, they were "stealing" Cy Youngs from each other, so that may not be a fair comparison.

    In their peak seasons, I'd go Baird, Barnett, Swingle. For their careers, though, it's a tough call. I think I'd go Barnett (for the volume of innings pitched), Swingle, Baird, but it's so close. In a 7 game series, though, I'd want Barnett, no question. So marybe Barnett is the best.

    Regardless of whether he's the best or the 3rd best, here's to 22 great seasons for Anthony Swingle, and hoping to get at least one more. His Retire chance is 1%, so he should be back. I'll just have to decide if I can afford to pay him and his sub 40 EN $4M or so, just to try to get to 400 wins.

    Cheers,
    Wayne
    Last edited by wfn71; April 11, 2019 at 11:46 AM.
    WS Wins:
    MONEYBALL: 2035, 36, 37, 39, 54, 82
    Negro League Tribute: 1940, 65, 72, 75, 83, 87
    Lawn Chair: 1990, 91, 92, 96
    Pacific Coast League: 1919, 25, 35, 36, 38, 40, 41
    Peter Gammons Memorial: 2011
    Spring Training: 1994, 97, 99, 10, 23, 27, 37, 39, 57, 63, 64
    Beer League: 1988, 90, 96, 07, 10, 17, 19, 21, 25, 26, 28, 37, 42
    MLB NewSchool: 2006, 11, 13, 14, 15, 34, 39, 42, 57, 62

    Despite the high cost of living, it remains quite popular.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    Re: P Anthony Swingle -- Wow

    Amazing career
    Chicago Cubs (MLB Str8 8's)
    Philadelphia Phillies (Two Major Leagues)
    Sabermetrics Sabercats (ALTRTA)
    San Francisco Giants (MLB ShowDown)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
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    Re: P Anthony Swingle -- Wow

    Update: Through 18 starts, Swingle is 3-5, with a 4.12 ERA. He needs 9 more wins to get to 400 for his career (he's got 14 starts left this season, if he doesn't skip any starts due to exhaustion).

    The problem is he's averaging right at 5 innings per start (94 IP, 18 starts = 5.22 innings per start). He's just not going 5 innings often enough to even qualify for a win. The other aspect of that is my bullpen is pretty bad, so he's probably losing out on wins where the bullpen blows a lead.

    He's up to 36% retire, so he may not be around another season to try to get to 400. Even if he is around, I'm not sure he'll be able to be in the rotation next year when his EN drops even more (along with his other ratings). He may end his career with about 392 wins...

    Cheers,
    Wayne
    Last edited by wfn71; May 1, 2019 at 12:23 PM.
    WS Wins:
    MONEYBALL: 2035, 36, 37, 39, 54, 82
    Negro League Tribute: 1940, 65, 72, 75, 83, 87
    Lawn Chair: 1990, 91, 92, 96
    Pacific Coast League: 1919, 25, 35, 36, 38, 40, 41
    Peter Gammons Memorial: 2011
    Spring Training: 1994, 97, 99, 10, 23, 27, 37, 39, 57, 63, 64
    Beer League: 1988, 90, 96, 07, 10, 17, 19, 21, 25, 26, 28, 37, 42
    MLB NewSchool: 2006, 11, 13, 14, 15, 34, 39, 42, 57, 62

    Despite the high cost of living, it remains quite popular.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    273

    Re: P Anthony Swingle -- Wow

    I'd bring him back as a closer, or just middle relief pitcher. may have a better chance at getting wins out of the pen...

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
    Posts
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    Re: P Anthony Swingle -- Wow

    Quote Originally Posted by Bennett08 View Post
    I'd bring him back as a closer, or just middle relief pitcher. may have a better chance at getting wins out of the pen...
    I've considred that. It depends on how many wins he ends up with, and if he decides to retire on his own.

    I've bumped my starting pitcher fatigue threshold to -40% and it's helped. He's up to 7 wins on the season, and he's got his average innings per start up to 5.5. I just bumped it down to -50% to see if that helps even more. My other starters don't seem to mind...they're all having close to career years.

    Good news on the 400 win front. He's sitting on 395 wins. He's started 27 games this year. I'm going to give him an extra day of rest after each start down the stretch since I'm letting his fatigue drop to -50%. It will mean one less start, but hopefully he'll have the strength to get into the 6th inning for each of his starts. He'll likely get 4 more starts this year. He won't get to 400 wins this year, but with some luck maybe he'll get close. Then, next year, I can put him in the pen and maybe spot start him to get the couple of wins he'll need...if he doesn't retire.

    Cheers,
    Wayne
    WS Wins:
    MONEYBALL: 2035, 36, 37, 39, 54, 82
    Negro League Tribute: 1940, 65, 72, 75, 83, 87
    Lawn Chair: 1990, 91, 92, 96
    Pacific Coast League: 1919, 25, 35, 36, 38, 40, 41
    Peter Gammons Memorial: 2011
    Spring Training: 1994, 97, 99, 10, 23, 27, 37, 39, 57, 63, 64
    Beer League: 1988, 90, 96, 07, 10, 17, 19, 21, 25, 26, 28, 37, 42
    MLB NewSchool: 2006, 11, 13, 14, 15, 34, 39, 42, 57, 62

    Despite the high cost of living, it remains quite popular.

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