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Thread: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

  1. #1181
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    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    If we are talking 2099, theres a stud 2nd rounder turned FA with 299 HR and 1000 RBI
    https://www.csfbl.com/player/view.asp?playerid=4633354
    Happy, but a little lost
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    2016: 3,437-3,070 (.528) ~ 4 WS
    2017: 8,035-6,518 (.552) ~ 8 WS
    2018: 6,226-5,522 (.530) ~ 7 WS
    2019: 3 WS


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  2. #1182

    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    ring is barely in the top 10 of a draft that had 6 HOFers, not even gonna fit him into honorable mentions now that you brought him up

  3. #1183
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    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    Dishonorable.

  4. #1184
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    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    Quote Originally Posted by Luke_T View Post
    If we are talking 2099, theres a stud 2nd rounder turned FA with 299 HR and 1000 RBI
    https://www.csfbl.com/player/view.asp?playerid=4633354
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  5. #1185

    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    Overall Rank: #28
    Player: SS Adam Johns
    Year: 2099
    Owner: PackerKen
    Career Rank: #28
    Peak Rank: #22
    Did he have the best career in the draft? No, #2 John Peachey

    Johns looked like a superstar from the word go. No less an authority than soldats himself proclaimed “that's a hall of famer, my goodness” as soon as the pick was made. DP seemed pretty down, claiming that Johns would reach $11m in salary. For once, soldats had the more accurate assessment. Johns certainly wasn’t cheap, but $6-$7m is perfectly reasonable for a 90 RA SS with a very good bat. Johns was pretty well developed and was an all-star level player within a year of getting drafted, at age 21. His bat really broke out a couple years later, and from age 24 to 31 he averaged 8.1 WAR/year – a consistent MVP candidate for nearly a full decade. While his early career was fantastic, it suffered from going through multiple owners, and he improved even more after finding himself a stable home in Minnetonka. His best ratings were his BA and RA (although his great supporting DI/SL certainly helped), which is why it’s surprising that his best year came at age 31 in 2110, at the end of his peak and after his BA had started to decline. He put up a crazy 1.081 OPS, put up 9.6 WAR, and won his only WS ring that year. The decline hit him pretty hard after that, though, and he lasted only 5 more seasons and a combined 6.3 WAR. That puts him in a very weird group. He’s one of just 5 players to have their best season be an 8+ WAR year, and then never have even a 5 WAR season again. The other 4 players had six combined 8+ seasons, which is the same amount Johns had by himself. No other player has been as consistently great, had their best season, and declined as hard after their peak. Still, that peak up until he was 31 was truly fantastic, providing all-around value that few players have matched.

    Johns was inarguably a great player, but he was also clearly surrounded by greatness – this is one of the most star-studded drafts in league history. It’s one of just 5 drafts ever to have three players with 70+ JAWS, and one of only 2 to have six players at 50+. I barely have time to touch the 3 guys who are only like “mid-tier” HOF level players.

    Quick hits:
    #5 James Whitehead was best pitcher in the draft even though he didn’t pitch a full season until age 27 and had just 12.6 career WAR at age 31, after appearing in 7 seasons. Out of the 284 players in league history with at least 50+ JAWS, that’s the lowest total after 7 seasons. He had just 21% of his total career WAR come in his first 7 seasons, which is the 4th lowest of those 284 players (the average is 48%, and the absolute lowest is famous late-bloomer Troy Mandel, with just 14%. The highest % is Julius Bergman at 84%). Then he broke out in his 30s with a CO/SY combo that lasted through his age 38 season and was a consistent ace for a bunch of Applachian playoff teams.
    #4 William Langlinais had an incredibly clean career arc. He came up, was an immediate impact player, broke out in a huge way with 4 straight MVP level offensive seasons through his late 20’s, and then immediately went into a slow decline through his 30s. He unfortunately cost a lot and was a poor fielder, but the bat stayed productive for all of his 14 seasons and would stand out more in a less crowded draft.
    #6 Benjamin Bell came out of the gates absolutely blazing hot, lighting up the league in a cup of coffee at age 23 before starting his full-time career the next season. With fully maxed 95/98 BA/SL at age 24 (one of a very small handful of players with 95+ ratings in both ratings), he tore up the league in his first 2 seasons, averaging 70 xRAA and 9.5 WAR. Bell essentially didn’t have a single other good rating, but it hardly mattered with a bat that great. He couldn’t keep it up, however, and settled into being only a very good all-star hitter for the next 7ish seasons (as opposed to an all-time legend). Nearly a third of his total career WAR came in those 2 big seasons, and he provided next to no value after age 33. Again, barely matters – those years were big enough to make him an easy HOFer almost by themselves.

    Yeah, those guys are just the appetizers. #3 Jerry Matthew was a drastically different type of player from Johns, but ended up with shockingly similar overall value. Where Johns was an all-around beast, Matthew provided 0 defensive value. He was made to be a DH, with no range or endurance, but with (I believe) the highest big 4 total of any hitter in league history. They were never all maxed out at the same time, but still – 80/99/98/98 is an eye-popping total. Matthew lived up to that hype too, by being one of the very best pure hitters we’ve seen. He took a few years to ramp up before becoming a true destroyer in 2101, and then took another leap in 2103. He had 1.000+ OPS marks for 10 straight seasons, usually well above that benchmark, so it’s no surprise that he ended his career as the all-time career leader in batting average, slugging, and OPS, with huge margins in the latter 2 spots. Even with all those juicy numbers throughout his 20s, his best years came towards the end of his career. He set the all-time OPS record in 2109 with a 1.211 season, and nearly did it again the next season before fading hard in the 2nd half. The 2110 season was actually much better by xRAA, though, due to the league environment and stronger baserunning. His 83.8 mark that year is the 2nd highest of any year in history, behind only Rufus’ 2070. He faded quickly afterwards, but that peak was so high that he was still a very solid hitter in his last year at age 36.His overall value is a little lower than it could have been, due to playing a pretty unnecessary and ugly 500ish games in the field, and his career is shorter than many of the all-time best. But at his peak, almost no one has ever been a better offensive force than Matthew.

    Of course, one of those players who could go nearly blow-for-blow with Matthew is John Peachey himself. He didn’t have a season that quite lived up to that Matthew peak…and yeah, that’s the end of my criticism for him. Peachey is kind of like a mash-up of the other studs in the draft. He’s what you get if you take most of Matthew’s offense and a big portion of Johns’ defense and then added like 8 years onto their career. By his 2nd season on 2102 he was already a superstar with a 1.047 OPS and 7.9 WAR…and that was basically his worst season until his late 30s. Over that time frame, his worst was a borderline MVP candidate with 40ish xRAA and excellent defense at 3B. At his best, the xRAA was in the 60’s on top of that same defense. That’s a combo that, again, is essentially unmatched. His best 7 seasons averaged a hair over 10 WAR/season, which only Attila Bonaparte and Gareth Weaver have equaled. Despite having a peak that blows almost every other hitter out of the water…it’s his longevity that is really his calling card. He had 13 total seasons of 7+ WAR, and then just…kept…going. He had 17 seasons of at least 5+ WAR – the previous record for a position player was 15.He was a 5 WAR player as late as his age 40 season – the first position player to ever have that high of a mark in his 18th or later season. His age 37-39 seasons (average of 5.8 WAR) would be a totally solid peak for most players. His 19 seasons of 2+ WAR also tied a record for position players. Overall, his combination of peak mastery (on both sides of the ball) and his never-ending career means that I have Peachey as the best position player in league history. A true legend to highlight this outstanding draft.
    Last edited by rentforfree2790; November 7, 2019 at 05:28 PM.

  6. #1186
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    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    These write-ups are some of the best content this league has ever produced. Nice work.

    Nowwwww.... I can't wait until we talk extensively about how Peachey wasn't good enough to get into the HOF. And then also talk about how whenever Langlinais would ever do something great in PbP in my best Borat voice I would say "That was lang li NIIIIIiiiiIIIIIIiiiiccccceeee"

  7. #1187
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    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    In case my post above was tl;dr I want to point out that Peachey was NOT HOF material. LOL

  8. #1188
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    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    I agree with you that the hof committee should have reconvened on 4/12, the day after he retired instead of waiting until the normal after WS time to have their election. Peachey was that good

  9. #1189

    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    couple quick additions

    I mentioned that Matthew had the highest big 4 potential ratings total of all position players. I didn't mention how big that record is. Willie Waltz was the early record holder at 354, and then only Thomas Dansby eclipsed that total for a century. There are at least 20 players with totals in the 340's, and another 12 between 350-356. But that seemed to be the magic ceiling...until Matthew came along and broke that record by 19 points. Crazily enough, John Gross came along a few years later and, while he isn't anywhere near Matthew, is now in 2nd at 360.

    The other addition is related - something potentially fishy happened to ratings in the 2090's. Or we just got very lucky. I also mentioned in the above that Bell was one of a very select few players w/ 95+ BA/SL. Here are those players:

    Draft YearNameBASL
    2024Victor Ramos9698
    2079Joseph Williams9598
    2093Robert Delong9898
    2094Tony Johnson9898
    2099Jerry Matthew9898
    2099John Peachey9798
    2099Benjamin Bell9598

    Just Ramos for a very long time, Joseph Williams pops up in the 70's...and then it happens 5 times in 7 drafts, and the list nearly doubles after the 2099 draft alone.

  10. #1190

    Re: Every #1 Overall Draft Pick in TCL History, Ranked

    This probably isn't complete at all, but it's hard to get potential ratings for thousands of players. I still have a bit sample, though. The highest big 5 potential ratings for hitters (DI/CN/BA/SL/SP) is 438, for Peter McDowell. And this is goofy since defensive ratings can be changed, but the highest total across all 10 stats is Jack Rabbit Riley, with an average of 74.6 across the board. Only 1 position change there and he did actually reach his peak there - I was worried it'd be some guy who was converted to 1B late in his career and had a couple unearned 100s (like Peachey).

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