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Thread: How much do drills slow decline?

  1. #1

    How much do drills slow decline?

    If I were to allocate 10/10 drills, how much would this slow an aging player's decline?

  2. #2
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    Re: How much do drills slow decline?

    There is no straight forward answer to this question. The decline would be slowed "a bit".
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  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    489

    Re: How much do drills slow decline?

    Yeah, all players decline differently it seems. 10/10 would decline players much slower than 0/10 but there is no way to answer this with a number of years or ratings points or anything.

  4. #4
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by avidmar1978 View Post
    There is no straight forward answer to this question. The decline would be slowed "a bit".
    Ya know what would be great. If players declines were 100% random. Example Bartolo Colon was improving into his late 30's where as Andrew McCutchen has started a pretty steep decline early. Or like RA Dickey a couple of years ago becoming awesome

  5. #5

    Re: How much do drills slow decline?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cerb81 View Post
    Ya know what would be great. If players declines were 100% random. Example Bartolo Colon was improving into his late 30's where as Andrew McCutchen has started a pretty steep decline early. Or like RA Dickey a couple of years ago becoming awesome
    Seems Dickey and Colon would have gotten where they are from late career SY-boost (although in their 40s that might not apply as much)

    As far as McCutchen, I have had a few good players that suffered from "Logan's Run Syndrome". THey hit age 30, and think their career is over. Or "Mauer Syndrome". I move them to a less demanding position in their early 30s, and they lose the edge in their hitting skill.


    Note: to the previous paragraph I had one player who kind of suffered both, he was a SS, who one year even challenged for MVP, routinely .300 with around 25 HRs. But, his RA was in the 50s. Well, I finally found a real SS, when he was 29. And I played largely at 2B (unlike good- hit, no field SS, I had no-hit no-field 2Bs) he hit fairly normal. But, next year he turned 30 and into a 2B. He lost it, turned into a .220 hitter. Still had the ratings, but after a couple of years I had to dump him, couldn't afford waiting on him since he was still making good money for crap play.
    Last edited by DTCT; June 11, 2017 at 01:34 AM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by avidmar1978 View Post
    There is no straight forward answer to this question. The decline would be slowed "a bit".
    This, and I'm convinced development continues to benefit older players too, with decreasing significance as hey age. How much? It can't be quantified.

  7. #7
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    Dec 2005
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    Re: How much do drills slow decline?

    cant be quantified because too many variables:

    each individual rating has its own aging curves for development/decline (though each rating in general has some basic similarities across players; speed develops/declines earlier than DI)
    each individual player has an internal development rating that is hidden (decline too maybe? probably not)
    each season development/drills investment only affects that season

    as a player who tends to max out devs/drills every single season, I find that I get more prime years out of players than other owners who dont.

    in general I subscribe to the following growth model:

    at the flip, a player develops AND declines. so SP may develop by 10 and decline by 1 at age 23. by adding full development points and internal development, the develop increases to 13. by adding full drills, the decline decreases to 0. at age 33, SP may develop by 3 and decline by 9. full development may increase development to 4 and full drills may decrease decline to 7.

    so younger players benefit MORE from development money because decline is less likely at younger ages (most ratings have more internal development than decline before 26, about even 26-30, more decline after 30).

    anyway, this is mostly taken from my own theories on the game engine, not any particular knowledge.
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  8. #8
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    Re: How much do drills slow decline?

    Hi, I usually acquire a team that has recently been a top contender. Which mean aging players, no real talent in LM/AAA and no FOA. That's when owners drop teams and move to a new league. So I am over CAP no FOA (which means no matter how much I reduce salary I am not going to see any FOA impact till the second season I have the team)
    My roster is full of players who had really good potential and contributed to teams success but now have spent their careers without drill/development so they are basically over priced contributing to the teams overall decline.
    The first thing I have to do is weed out all the players who are basically spent. Replace them with FA who perform just as well (or at least worth the price differential )
    Then because the team had a good record the season prior I draft later picks so I look for younger less expensive players that have a promise of developing into good players. And this means 5 or 6 seasons down the road so now development becomes important. Most of my teams have 0 scouting but max development and then drill.
    As I stabilize I max out drill as well. After 5 or 6 years I get a team nearing .500 that is mostly composed of free agents. Its the 1 or 2 seasons where you get a top ten draft selection and offers from other teams where in exchange for one of your few good but aging players you get draft picks. I've never had to go more then 5 or 6 seasons without getting a team into post season (does not mean they win)
    But any team that tries to operate without drill or development is basically putting the limit on the time that team can compete for championships. Before the natural cycle of a players career is done without drill they will be overpriced and without development in LM/AAA (you must move players from LM to AAA at age 23 as they do not get the AAA bonus in LM) players do not reach their full potential. In 75 mill cap leagues this should never be an issue. In 55mil leagues quality FA are much more abundant. (In 75mil leagues you just sign every FA out there and still max FOA)
    So yes the lower the leagues CAP the more you see the impact of not having FOA. Beware the team that offers you a former CY, MVP for your draft pick. Their salary is now too high and they have not had drill so they are being moved before their decline becomes obvious.

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